Benito- I'm more than likely preaching to the choir, but my conscience is making me say to be careful. Sometimes looking back doesn't help with looking forward. I guess I'm just suggesting you don't assume history will trend forward, there might be other variables at play that were blips in the decades and may not be repeated. Also, the evolution of recent events regarding aging, international migration, fluctuations in employment, foreclosures may be excluded. Nancy From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Benito Perez Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2012 10:27 AM To: ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net Subject: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ socioeconomic data All, Good morning. Wanted to solicit ideas, tools, resources that others may be aware of in analyzing historical census data to develop growth trends that can be used in forecasting socioeconomic data for our travel demand model's traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Thoughts? At this point I have gathered Census tract geospatial data for our region (Hampton Roads) as far back as 1960, Census Block Group geospatial data from 1990 onwards, and Census Block geospatial data from 2000 onwards. The hope is to do a geospatial analysis with these data sets to geospatially identify growth patterns across our region. Thanks for your time in your thoughts on this. I'll be cross-posting this on the TMIP listserv as well. [cid:image001.jpg@01CD2EA8.B34C2DF0] Benito O. Pérez, AICP Transportation Engineer Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization The Regional Building 723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake Virginia 23320 bperez@hrpdcva.gov<mailto:bperez@hrpdcva.gov>| http://www.hrtpo.org<http://www.hrtpo.org/>| Phone: 757.420.8300 | Fax: 757.523.4881 All email correspondence to and from this address is subject to the Virginia Freedom of Information Act and to the Virginia Public Records Act, which may result in monitoring and disclosure to third parties, including law enforcement.

Ok, there are a few ways to do the socio-economic data projections for the future year (normally around 20 to 25 years). As you have mentioned if you have the socio-economic data from the ACS at the census tract level from the 1960 to 2010, then you could extrapolate the data points by a linear, exponential or some kind of logistic curves/models with a build-out condition if that data is available. In Palm Beach we coordinate with the local governments and obtain the latest future land use maps, we project population and employment based on the future land use maps, redevelopments, TODs, TDRs, Multi-modal districts, etc. that are approved in the comp. plan. There are pros and cons for each of the methodologies, the bottom line is projections are extremely tricky especially in social science. Vinod Sandanasamy, AICP Senior Transportation Planner Palm Beach Metropolitan Planning Organization 2300 North Jog Road, 4th Floor West Palm Beach, FL 33411-2749 Phone: 561-478 5747 Fax: 561-233 5664 Email: vsandana@PalmBeachMPO.org<mailto:NFernandez@PalmBeachMPO.org> Website: www.pbcgov.com/mpo<http://www.pbcgov.com/mpo> [cid:image002.png@01CD2EA5.52F916F0] From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Benito Perez Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2012 10:27 AM To: ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net Subject: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ socioeconomic data All, Good morning. Wanted to solicit ideas, tools, resources that others may be aware of in analyzing historical census data to develop growth trends that can be used in forecasting socioeconomic data for our travel demand model's traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Thoughts? At this point I have gathered Census tract geospatial data for our region (Hampton Roads) as far back as 1960, Census Block Group geospatial data from 1990 onwards, and Census Block geospatial data from 2000 onwards. The hope is to do a geospatial analysis with these data sets to geospatially identify growth patterns across our region. Thanks for your time in your thoughts on this. I'll be cross-posting this on the TMIP listserv as well. [cid:image003.jpg@01CD2EA5.52F916F0] Benito O. Pérez, AICP Transportation Engineer Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization The Regional Building 723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake Virginia 23320 bperez@hrpdcva.gov<mailto:bperez@hrpdcva.gov>| http://www.hrtpo.org<http://www.hrtpo.org/>| Phone: 757.420.8300 | Fax: 757.523.4881 All email correspondence to and from this address is subject to the Virginia Freedom of Information Act and to the Virginia Public Records Act, which may result in monitoring and disclosure to third parties, including law enforcement. ________________________________ Under Florida law, e-mail addresses are public records. If you do not want your e-mail address released in response to a public records request, do not send electronic mail to this entity. Instead, contact this office by phone or in writing.

Benito- If historical trend & historical pattern are *all* you want to consider, then consider (1) a region-level modeling of economic and population growth, paired with (2) a markov chain/cellular automata modeling of land use, for local spatial distribution. The MC/CA approach allows you to simulate spatial distribution of as much land development as you need to accommodate the region-level economic and population growth. There's a large literature on markov chain/cellular automata modeling. For example, see Iacono and Levinson (2008). Their presentation video and slides are at www.cts.umn.edu/access-study/events/workshops/2007-11Dec.html<http://%20… or Iacono and Levinson (2008) paper at www.cts.umn.edu/Publications/ResearchReports/pdfdownload.pl?id=952<http:… Having said all that, I *don't* think that historical trend, historical pattern, and mathematical extrapolation are *all* we need to consider. In the MSP metro, Metropolitan Council is instead implementing a real estate market/land use simulation model, coordinated with our travel demand modeling, allowing us to introduce regional & local policies and plans - and thus simulate future alternative scenarios. Our premise is that policies and planning can have influence or impact on development dynamics - and that the accessibility terrain influences development, and, of course, vice versa. My own bookshelf on contemporary land use modeling includes... * Hunt, J.D., D. Kriger, and E. Miller (2005): "Current operational land-use transport modelling frameworks: a review." Transport Reviews, 25, pp 329-376. * Iacono, M., D. Levinson, and A. El-Geneidy (2008): "Models of transportation and land use change: A guide." Journal of Planning Literature, 22, pp 323-340. Online at http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/MTLUC.pdf * Johnston, R., and M. McCoy (2006): Assessment of integrated transportation-land use models: Final report. Online at www.ice.ucdavis.edu/um/Default.aspx?tabid=180<http://www.ice.ucdavis.edu… * Wegener, M. (2004): "Overview of land-use-transport models." In Transport Geography and Spatial Systems, volume 5. Online at www.tlumip.org/links/MW_Handbook_in_Transport.pdf<http://www.tlumip.org/… And there are lots of good articles, papers and reports on specific models, applications. If you prefer webinars or videos, I recommend... * Colby Brown and Francisco Martinez's webinar on the CubeLand model. www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ptW7pgnjH0<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ptW7… * also Paul Waddell's excellent series of 8 TMIP webinars covering general theory of land use models, state of the practice, detailed discussion of models IPLACE3S, PECAS, and UrbanSim. www.urbansim.org/Documentation/Classroom/WebHome<http://www.urbansim.org… Hope that helps. Todd Graham | Principal Forecaster Metropolitan Council | 390 North Robert Street | Saint Paul, MN 55101 tel: 1+651-602-1322 | fax: 1+651-602-1674 | e: todd.graham@metc.state.mn.us<mailto:todd.graham@metc.state.mn.us> in: www.linkedin.com/in/toddgraham<http://www.linkedin.com/in/toddgraham> Visit www.metrocouncil.org/data<http://www.metrocouncil.org/data> for the latest in regional information. From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Benito Perez Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2012 9:27 AM To: ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net Subject: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ socioeconomic data All, Good morning. Wanted to solicit ideas, tools, resources that others may be aware of in analyzing historical census data to develop growth trends that can be used in forecasting socioeconomic data for our travel demand model's traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Thoughts? At this point I have gathered Census tract geospatial data for our region (Hampton Roads) as far back as 1960, Census Block Group geospatial data from 1990 onwards, and Census Block geospatial data from 2000 onwards. The hope is to do a geospatial analysis with these data sets to geospatially identify growth patterns across our region. Thanks for your time in your thoughts on this. I'll be cross-posting this on the TMIP listserv as well. [cid:image001.jpg@01CD2F5C.31447880] Benito O. Pérez, AICP Transportation Engineer Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization The Regional Building 723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake Virginia 23320 bperez@hrpdcva.gov<mailto:bperez@hrpdcva.gov>| http://www.hrtpo.org<http://www.hrtpo.org/>| Phone: 757.420.8300 | Fax: 757.523.4881 All email correspondence to and from this address is subject to the Virginia Freedom of Information Act and to the Virginia Public Records Act, which may result in monitoring and disclosure to third parties, including law enforcement. ________________________________ This email is intended to be read only by the intended recipient. This email may be legally privileged or protected from disclosure by law. If you are not the intended recipient, any dissemination of this email or any attachments is strictly prohibited, and you should refrain from reading this email or examining any attachments. 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