Ok, there are a few ways to do the socio-economic data projections for the future year (normally around 20 to 25 years). As you have mentioned if you have the socio-economic data from the ACS at the census tract level from the 1960 to 2010, then you could extrapolate the data points by a linear, exponential or some kind of logistic curves/models with a build-out condition if that data is available. In Palm Beach we coordinate with the local governments and obtain the latest future land use maps, we project population and employment based on the future land use maps, redevelopments, TODs, TDRs, Multi-modal districts, etc. that are approved in the comp. plan. There are pros and cons for each of the methodologies, the bottom line is projections are extremely tricky especially in social science.
Vinod Sandanasamy, AICP
Senior Transportation Planner
Palm Beach Metropolitan Planning Organization
2300 North Jog Road, 4th Floor
West Palm Beach, FL 33411-2749
Phone: 561-478 5747
Fax: 561-233 5664
Good morning. Wanted to solicit ideas, tools, resources that others may be aware of in analyzing historical census data to develop growth trends that can be used in forecasting socioeconomic data for our travel demand model’s traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Thoughts? At this point I have gathered Census tract geospatial data for our region (Hampton Roads) as far back as 1960, Census Block Group geospatial data from 1990 onwards, and Census Block geospatial data from 2000 onwards. The hope is to do a geospatial analysis with these data sets to geospatially identify growth patterns across our region. Thanks for your time in your thoughts on this. I’ll be cross-posting this on the TMIP listserv as well.
Benito O. Pérez, AICP
Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization
The Regional Building 723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake Virginia 23320
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