I have done similar modeling exercises at the census tract level and have found that spatial error and/or spatial lag models can improve the fit over using demographic information alone.

I would suggest that first you conduct the modeling exercise at the county level. The data is easier to get, and you can test out various hypothesis, and there will be less "noise" in the data. Once you've got a good model at the county level, then you can explore going to smaller levels of geography such as the census tract or the block group.

Mr. Louis Merlin, AICP

Doctoral Student

UNC CH Department of City and Regional Planning

From: Nancy Reger []
Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2012 12:30 PM
Subject: Re: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ socioeconomic data


Iím more than likely preaching to the choir, but my conscience is making me say to be careful. Sometimes looking back doesnít help with looking forward. I guess Iím just suggesting you donít assume history will trend forward, there might be other variables at play that were blips in the decades and may not be repeated. Also, the evolution of recent events regarding aging, international migration, fluctuations in employment, foreclosures may be excluded.   






From: [] On Behalf Of Benito Perez
Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2012 10:27 AM
Subject: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ socioeconomic data




Good morning. Wanted to solicit ideas, tools, resources that others may be aware of in analyzing historical census data to develop growth trends that can be used in forecasting socioeconomic data for our travel demand modelís traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Thoughts? At this point I have gathered Census tract geospatial data for our region (Hampton Roads) as far back as 1960, Census Block Group geospatial data from 1990 onwards, and Census Block geospatial data from 2000 onwards. The hope is to do a geospatial analysis with these data sets to geospatially identify growth patterns across our region. Thanks for your time in your thoughts on this. Iíll be cross-posting this on the TMIP listserv as well.



Description: Description: Description: HRTPO logo - small


Benito O. Pťrez, AICP

Transportation Engineer

Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization

The Regional Building  723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake Virginia  23320|| Phone: 757.420.8300 | Fax: 757.523.4881


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