If historical trend & historical pattern are *all* you want to consider, then consider
(1) a region-level modeling of economic and population growth, paired with (2) a markov
chain/cellular automata modeling of land use, for local spatial distribution.
The MC/CA approach allows you to simulate spatial distribution of as much land development
as you need to accommodate the region-level economic and population growth.
There's a large literature on markov chain/cellular automata modeling.
For example, see Iacono and Levinson (2008). Their presentation video and slides are at
or Iacono and Levinson (2008) paper at
Having said all that, I *don't* think that historical trend, historical pattern, and
mathematical extrapolation are *all* we need to consider.
In the MSP metro, Metropolitan Council is instead implementing a real estate market/land
use simulation model, coordinated with our travel demand modeling, allowing us to
introduce regional & local policies and plans - and thus simulate future alternative
scenarios. Our premise is that policies and planning can have influence or impact on
development dynamics - and that the accessibility terrain influences development, and, of
course, vice versa.
From our discussions with peer agencies and lit review,
we think use of a real estate market/land use simulation model is typical of the
state-of-the-practice. And contemporary models are attentive to what socioeconomic market
segments will site where (considering neighborhood preferences, housing stock, etc.).
My own bookshelf on contemporary land use modeling includes...
* Hunt, J.D., D. Kriger, and E. Miller (2005): "Current
operational land-use transport modelling frameworks: a review." Transport Reviews,
25, pp 329-376.
* Iacono, M., D. Levinson, and A. El-Geneidy (2008): "Models of
transportation and land use change: A guide." Journal of Planning Literature, 22, pp
323-340. Online at http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/MTLUC.pdf
* Johnston, R., and M. McCoy (2006): Assessment of integrated
transportation-land use models: Final report. Online at
* Wegener, M. (2004): "Overview of land-use-transport
models." In Transport Geography and Spatial Systems, volume 5. Online at
And there are lots of good articles, papers and reports on specific models, applications.
If you prefer webinars or videos, I recommend...
* Colby Brown and Francisco Martinez's webinar on the CubeLand
* also Paul Waddell's excellent series of 8 TMIP webinars covering
general theory of land use models, state of the practice, detailed discussion of models
IPLACE3S, PECAS, and UrbanSim.
Hope that helps.
Todd Graham | Principal Forecaster
Metropolitan Council | 390 North Robert Street | Saint Paul, MN 55101
tel: 1+651-602-1322 | fax: 1+651-602-1674 | e:
for the latest in
From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org] On Behalf Of
Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2012 9:27 AM
Subject: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ
Good morning. Wanted to solicit ideas, tools, resources that others may be aware of in
analyzing historical census data to develop growth trends that can be used in forecasting
socioeconomic data for our travel demand model's traffic analysis zones (TAZs).
Thoughts? At this point I have gathered Census tract geospatial data for our region
(Hampton Roads) as far back as 1960, Census Block Group geospatial data from 1990 onwards,
and Census Block geospatial data from 2000 onwards. The hope is to do a geospatial
analysis with these data sets to geospatially identify growth patterns across our region.
Thanks for your time in your thoughts on this. I'll be cross-posting this on the TMIP
listserv as well.
Benito O. Pérez, AICP
Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization
The Regional Building 723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake Virginia 23320
Phone: 757.420.8300 | Fax:
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