From: Census2000 &lt;Census2000(a)ccmc.org&gt; Commerce Secretary Reclaims Final Say Over Adjustment Decision, As Census Bureau Issues; Preliminary Undercount Estimates; Plus: Census Monitoring Board Presidential Members Discuss Undercount Consequences; House Census Subcommittee Gets New Members; And More. Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans on Friday rescinded a federal rule giving the Census Bureau director final authority to decide whether to release statistically corrected census numbers to the states for redistricting and other purposes. In a statement quoted by the Associated Press, the Secretary said, "I believe the decision-making authority for the 2000 Census should reside with the person selected by the President, approved by the U.S. Senate and accountable to the people." A formal announcement of the Secretary's action has not yet been published in the Federal Register. Relying on an opinion it sought from the Justice Department, the Commerce Department did not provide a formal notice and comment period for the new rule because it said the changes only addressed internal organizational matters. The rule, proposed last spring and put in place last October after a 45-day public comment period, established a committee of twelve "distinguished senior career [Census Bureau] professionals" to review the operational and technical aspects of the procedures for measuring census accuracy and correcting under- and overcounts in the first set of population numbers. The Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy (ESCAP) was charged with issuing a written report, which would be made public, recommending whether the director should release statistically adjusted data. If the director declined to adopt a committee recommendation in favor of adjustment, the rule required the Census Bureau to release the adjusted data. "A.C.E." is the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation program, which includes a quality-check survey of 314,000 households. A Commerce Department spokesperson said Secretary Evans would seek advice from experts at the Census Bureau before deciding in early March whether to release adjusted numbers. It is unclear if the Bureau will give the Secretary a written report, or if its recommendation will be made public. However, under the new rule, the Census Bureau would not reveal the adjusted numbers if the Secretary decides against their use. Five former Census Bureau directors supported delegating the adjustment decision to the head of the Bureau. Dr. Barbara Everitt Bryant, who led the agency during the 1990 census during the first Bush Administration, noted last summer that despite the move to paid advertising and efforts to simplify the questionnaires, it is "not possible to count everybody" without the use of sampling. In proposing the rule, the Census Bureau said the adjustment decision "turns entirely on operational and methodological implementation within the expertise of the Bureau of the Census," and that review by the Commerce Secretary would "create the appearance" that "non-scientific considerations" played a role in the adjustment decision. In 1980, the Commerce Secretary formally delegated a similar decision on whether to use sampling methods to correct the census undercount to the Census Bureau director. That delegation of authority was rescinded before the 1990 census, when controversy over an adjustment led to a lawsuit by the City of New York and dozens of other localities. In 1991, Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher decided not to adjust the 1990 census counts, despite a recommendation to do so by Director Bryant. Legislators and representatives of stakeholder organizations who support the use of scientific methods to correct undercounts in the census criticized the Bush Administration for revoking the delegation of decision-making authority. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO), the House Minority Leader, called on President Bush to meet with congressional leaders to discuss the Administration's position on census adjustment. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), a member of the House census oversight subcommittee, said President Bush "has chosen to prioritize politics over people." Gilbert F. Casellas, co-chair of the eight-member Census Monitoring Board who was appointed by President Clinton, said he was "appalled" by the decision. "If we allow the substitution of sound science for the calculus of partisan advantage, we will rob millions of Americans of their basic civil rights," Mr. Casellas said in a statement. Wade Henderson, executive director of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, said that if the Secretary overrules the recommendation of the Census Bureau's professional staff, "it would mark a triumph of politics over fairness." However, Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chairman of the House census panel, told the Associated Press that he strongly supported the Secretary's decision "to revoke the illegal rule that attempted to bypass the Congress...". Census Bureau releases preliminary A.C.E. results: The Census Bureau has released preliminary results from its Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation survey, giving a first though sketchy glimpse of Census 2000 accuracy. The preliminary findings show low and high estimates of net undercounts or overcounts in percentages for selected groupings, including race and ethnicity (Hispanic or Latino), gender, age, and owner or renter status. In testimony before the House Census Subcommittee on February 14, Acting Bureau Director William Barron said the early A.C.E. findings "indicate that the census was not only an operational success but was also successful in improving coverage of the population and in reducing the undercounts for some population groups." He emphasized that Bureau staff are still reviewing detailed information to evaluate the quality of the census and the A.C.E. survey, and determine if a statistical adjustment would improve the accuracy of the data. The early A.C.E. results show that the net national undercount ranges from 0.96 percent to 1.40 percent, below the 1.6 percent net undercount measured by the 'post enumeration survey' in 1990. However, the Bureau did not release information on the number of people actually missed or erroneously included in the census, or on the geographic distribution of those miscounts, figures that would indicate the full extent of the undercount and its geographic impact. While the net undercount (or overcount) estimates also indicate improved coverage of many race and ethnic groups over 1990, the disproportionate undercount of people of color (called the "differential undercount") appears to have persisted. Following historic patterns, Census 2000 was far more likely to miss renters than homeowners. The net undercount of children (under age 18) was lower than in 1990, but breakdowns by race were not reported. Dr. Barron recounted several factors that he said "contributed to a significant improvement in coverage" in Census 2000, including an extensive marketing and advertising campaign, successful hiring and retention of temporary staff, timely quality check programs, and state-of-the-art data processing technology. He also praised the American people for their cooperation and the efforts of census workers and partner organizations. In a written statement, Commerce Secretary Evans said the estimates "confirm" that Census 2000 was the most accurate in history. Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) called the preliminary A.C.E. results "good news" that negated the need for a statistical adjustment of the census. Census 2000, he said, is "the best census ever." Rep. Carolyn Maloney cautioned against drawing conclusions about the accuracy of the count without knowing how many people were missed and where they live. "They think that missing millions of Americans is good enough," she said of sampling opponents. "It shouldn't be and it's not." The preliminary A.C.E. results can be found on the Census Bureau's web site at: <http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2001/cb01cn03.html>. Census Monitoring Board update: The Presidential Members of the Census Monitoring Board held a forum in Washington, DC on February 20 to discuss a series of reports they commissioned on the consequences of a census undercount. The authors of several of the studies joined three of the Board's four Presidential appointees to present the highlights of their findings at the National Press Club. Using data from the 1990 census, which was not adjusted using scientific methods, the researchers evaluated the policy implications of the undercount in areas such as transportation planning, access to health care and hospital location, assistance for poor children, urban planning, and services for American Indians. "These studies," Board Co-Chair Gilbert Casellas said, "present overwhelming evidence that the undercount, if not corrected, will have damaging effects at every level of our society." Presidential Board Member Lorraine Green said the accuracy of the census affected both representational rights and the fair allocation of federal funds. Commenting on recent suggestions by some sampling critics that statistically corrected census numbers should be used to distribute program funds but not for congressional and legislative redistricting, Ms. Green said, "[A]ny suggestion that adjusted numbers are somehow more accurate for one purpose, but not another, is nothing more than a modern day separate-but-equal solution." Board Member Everett Ehrlich, Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs in the Clinton Administration, warned of "a stolen census" if Commerce Secretary Evans declined to correct the census numbers in the face of a recommendation to do so by Census Bureau staff. The eight-member Census Monitoring Board was established in 1997 to monitor preparations for and implementation of the 2000 census. The congressional Republican leadership, and President Clinton, in consultation with Democratic leaders in Congress, each appointed four members. The Board will operate through September 2001. The studies commissioned by the Presidential Members are available on their web site at www.cmbp.gov <http://www.cmbp.gov>. The Board's Congressional Members maintain their own web site at www.cmbc.gov <http://www.cmbc.gov>. New assignments on House Census Subcommittee: The House Committee on Government Reform has assigned members to its Subcommittee on the Census for the 107th Congress. The panel's line-up features several new members on both sides of the aisle: Subcommittee on the Census Committee on Government Reform 114 O'Neill House Office Building Washington, DC 20515 Tel: 202-226-1973 (107th Congress Membership) Republicans Dan Miller (FL), Chairman Chris Cannon (UT) Mark E. Souder (IN) Bob Barr (GA) Democrats Ranking Minority Member Carolyn B. Maloney (NY) William L. "Lacy" Clay, Jr. (MO) Danny K. Davis (IL) Rep. Clay is a freshman legislator who won the St. Louis district vacated by his father, William L. Clay, a former chairman of the now-defunct Committee on Post Office and Civil Service, which had jurisdiction over the census. Rep. Maloney relinquished the senior Democratic position on the panel to take the ranking slot on a Financial Services subcommittee. Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN) and Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) continue in their respective roles as chairman and ranking minority member of the full Committee on Government Reform. Census Advisory Committee meetings set for March: The Census Bureau's Race and Ethnic Advisory Committees will meet on March 14, 2001 (11:30 am - 5:00 pm) to review Census 2000 evaluations and convene working group discussions on plans for the 2010 census and the American Community Survey. On March 15 (8:30 am - 5:15 pm), the five committees will meet jointly with the Census Advisory Committee of Professional Associations and the Commerce Department's Decennial Census Advisory Committee, to discuss the findings of the Census Bureau's Executive Steering Committee on the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Policy (ESCAP). The Decennial Census Advisory Committee will continue its meeting on March 16 (8:30 am -- 1:30 pm), with presentations by Bureau staff on Census 2000 evaluation plans and working group sessions. All of the meetings will take place at the Doubletree Hotel, 300 Army Navy Drive, Arlington, VA, and are open to the public. Census data products update: In response to requests from data users, the Census Bureau has decided to release housing unit counts for functioning governmental units (states, cities, American Indian reservations, etc.) during May 2001. The Bureau had planned the first release of housing unit counts as part of Summary File 1 (SF-1), which will be available on a flow basis from June through September 2001 on the Internet. SF-1 will provide data down to the census block or tract levels, and will include occupancy status and owner/renter status, among other population and housing characteristics. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to Terri Ann Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at <mailto:terriann2k@aol.com>. For copies of previous News Alerts and other information, use our web site www.census2000.org <http://www.census2000.org>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000 Initiative at <mailto:Census2000@ccmc.org> or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals. -- Ed Christopher Bureau of Transportation Statistics U.S. Department of Transportation 400 Seventh Street SW Washington DC 20590 202-366-0412