22 Feb
2001
22 Feb
'01
4:30 p.m.
From: Census2000 <Census2000(a)ccmc.org>
Commerce Secretary Reclaims Final Say Over Adjustment Decision, As
Census Bureau Issues;
Preliminary Undercount Estimates;
Plus: Census Monitoring Board Presidential Members Discuss Undercount
Consequences;
House Census Subcommittee Gets New Members;
And More.
Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans on Friday rescinded a federal rule
giving the Census Bureau director final authority to decide whether to
release statistically corrected census numbers to the states for
redistricting and other purposes. In a statement quoted by the
Associated Press, the Secretary said, "I believe the decision-making
authority for the 2000 Census should reside with the person selected by
the President, approved by the U.S. Senate and accountable to the
people." A formal announcement of the Secretary's action has not yet
been published in the Federal Register. Relying on an opinion it sought
from the Justice Department, the Commerce Department did not provide a
formal notice and comment period for the new rule because it said the
changes only addressed internal organizational matters.
The rule, proposed last spring and put in place last October after a
45-day public comment period, established a committee of twelve
"distinguished senior career [Census Bureau] professionals" to review
the operational and technical aspects of the procedures for measuring
census accuracy and correcting under- and overcounts in the first set of
population numbers. The Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy
(ESCAP) was charged with issuing a written report, which would be made
public, recommending whether the director should release statistically
adjusted data. If the director declined to adopt a committee
recommendation in favor of adjustment, the rule required the Census
Bureau to release the adjusted data. "A.C.E." is the Accuracy and
Coverage Evaluation program, which includes a quality-check survey of
314,000 households.
A Commerce Department spokesperson said Secretary Evans would seek
advice from experts at the Census Bureau before deciding in early March
whether to release adjusted numbers. It is unclear if the Bureau will
give the Secretary a written report, or if its recommendation will be
made public. However, under the new rule, the Census Bureau would not
reveal the adjusted numbers if the Secretary decides against their use.
Five former Census Bureau directors supported delegating the adjustment
decision to the head of the Bureau. Dr. Barbara Everitt Bryant, who led
the agency during the 1990 census during the first Bush Administration,
noted last summer that despite the move to paid advertising and efforts
to simplify the questionnaires, it is "not possible to count everybody"
without the use of sampling. In proposing the rule, the Census Bureau
said the adjustment decision "turns entirely on operational and
methodological implementation within the expertise of the Bureau of the
Census," and that review by the Commerce Secretary would "create the
appearance" that "non-scientific considerations" played a role in the
adjustment decision.
In 1980, the Commerce Secretary formally delegated a similar decision on
whether to use sampling methods to correct the census undercount to the
Census Bureau director. That delegation of authority was rescinded
before the 1990 census, when controversy over an adjustment led to a
lawsuit by the City of New York and dozens of other localities. In
1991, Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher decided not to adjust the 1990
census counts, despite a recommendation to do so by Director Bryant.
Legislators and representatives of stakeholder organizations who support
the use of scientific methods to correct undercounts in the census
criticized the Bush Administration for revoking the delegation of
decision-making authority. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO), the House
Minority Leader, called on President Bush to meet with congressional
leaders to discuss the Administration's position on census adjustment.
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), a member of the House census oversight
subcommittee, said President Bush "has chosen to prioritize politics
over people." Gilbert F. Casellas, co-chair of the eight-member Census
Monitoring Board who was appointed by President Clinton, said he was
"appalled" by the decision. "If we allow the substitution of sound
science for the calculus of partisan advantage, we will rob millions of
Americans of their basic civil rights," Mr. Casellas said in a
statement. Wade Henderson, executive director of the Leadership
Conference on Civil Rights, said that if the Secretary overrules the
recommendation of the Census Bureau's professional staff, "it would mark
a triumph of politics over fairness." However, Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL),
chairman of the House census panel, told the Associated Press that he
strongly supported the Secretary's decision "to revoke the illegal rule
that attempted to bypass the Congress...".
Census Bureau releases preliminary A.C.E. results: The Census Bureau has
released preliminary results from its Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation
survey, giving a first though sketchy glimpse of Census 2000 accuracy.
The preliminary findings show low and high estimates of net undercounts
or overcounts in percentages for selected groupings, including race and
ethnicity (Hispanic or Latino), gender, age, and owner or renter status.
In testimony before the House Census Subcommittee on February 14, Acting
Bureau Director William Barron said the early A.C.E. findings "indicate
that the census was not only an operational success but was also
successful in improving coverage of the population and in reducing the
undercounts for some population groups." He emphasized that Bureau
staff are still reviewing detailed information to evaluate the quality
of the census and the A.C.E. survey, and determine if a statistical
adjustment would improve the accuracy of the data.
The early A.C.E. results show that the net national undercount ranges
from 0.96 percent to 1.40 percent, below the 1.6 percent net undercount
measured by the 'post enumeration survey' in 1990. However, the Bureau
did not release information on the number of people actually missed or
erroneously included in the census, or on the geographic distribution of
those miscounts, figures that would indicate the full extent of the
undercount and its geographic impact. While the net undercount (or
overcount) estimates also indicate improved coverage of many race and
ethnic groups over 1990, the disproportionate undercount of people of
color (called the "differential undercount") appears to have persisted.
Following historic patterns, Census 2000 was far more likely to miss
renters than homeowners. The net undercount of children (under age 18)
was lower than in 1990, but breakdowns by race were not reported.
Dr. Barron recounted several factors that he said "contributed to a
significant improvement in coverage" in Census 2000, including an
extensive marketing and advertising campaign, successful hiring and
retention of temporary staff, timely quality check programs, and
state-of-the-art data processing technology. He also praised the
American people for their cooperation and the efforts of census workers
and partner organizations.
In a written statement, Commerce Secretary Evans said the estimates
"confirm" that Census 2000 was the most accurate in history.
Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) called the preliminary A.C.E.
results "good news" that negated the need for a statistical adjustment
of the census. Census 2000, he said, is "the best census ever." Rep.
Carolyn Maloney cautioned against drawing conclusions about the accuracy
of the count without knowing how many people were missed and where they
live. "They think that missing millions of Americans is good enough,"
she said of sampling opponents. "It shouldn't be and it's not."
The preliminary A.C.E. results can be found on the Census Bureau's web
site at: <http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2001/cb01cn03.html>.
Census Monitoring Board update: The Presidential Members of the Census
Monitoring Board held a forum in Washington, DC on February 20 to
discuss a series of reports they commissioned on the consequences of a
census undercount. The authors of several of the studies joined three
of the Board's four Presidential appointees to present the highlights of
their findings at the National Press Club. Using data from the 1990
census, which was not adjusted using scientific methods, the researchers
evaluated the policy implications of the undercount in areas such as
transportation planning, access to health care and hospital location,
assistance for poor children, urban planning, and services for American
Indians. "These studies," Board Co-Chair Gilbert Casellas said,
"present overwhelming evidence that the undercount, if not corrected,
will have damaging effects at every level of our society."
Presidential Board Member Lorraine Green said the accuracy of the census
affected both representational rights and the fair allocation of federal
funds. Commenting on recent suggestions by some sampling critics that
statistically corrected census numbers should be used to distribute
program funds but not for congressional and legislative redistricting,
Ms. Green said, "[A]ny suggestion that adjusted numbers are somehow more
accurate for one purpose, but not another, is nothing more than a modern
day separate-but-equal solution." Board Member Everett Ehrlich, Under
Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs in the Clinton
Administration, warned of "a stolen census" if Commerce Secretary Evans
declined to correct the census numbers in the face of a recommendation
to do so by Census Bureau staff.
The eight-member Census Monitoring Board was established in 1997 to
monitor preparations for and implementation of the 2000 census. The
congressional Republican leadership, and President Clinton, in
consultation with Democratic leaders in Congress, each appointed four
members. The Board will operate through September 2001.
The studies commissioned by the Presidential Members are available on
their web site at www.cmbp.gov <http://www.cmbp.gov>. The Board's
Congressional Members maintain their own web site at www.cmbc.gov
<http://www.cmbc.gov>.
New assignments on House Census Subcommittee: The House Committee on
Government Reform has assigned members to its Subcommittee on the Census
for the 107th Congress. The panel's line-up features several new
members on both sides of the aisle:
Subcommittee on the Census
Committee on Government Reform
114 O'Neill House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
Tel: 202-226-1973
(107th Congress Membership)
Republicans
Dan Miller (FL), Chairman
Chris Cannon (UT)
Mark E. Souder (IN)
Bob Barr (GA)
Democrats
Ranking Minority Member
Carolyn B. Maloney (NY)
William L. "Lacy" Clay, Jr. (MO)
Danny K. Davis (IL)
Rep. Clay is a freshman legislator who won the St. Louis district
vacated by his father, William L. Clay, a former chairman of the
now-defunct Committee on Post Office and Civil Service, which had
jurisdiction over the census. Rep. Maloney relinquished the senior
Democratic position on the panel to take the ranking slot on a Financial
Services subcommittee. Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN) and Rep. Henry Waxman
(D-CA) continue in their respective roles as chairman and ranking
minority member of the full Committee on Government Reform.
Census Advisory Committee meetings set for March: The Census Bureau's
Race and Ethnic Advisory Committees will meet on March 14, 2001 (11:30
am - 5:00 pm) to review Census 2000 evaluations and convene working
group discussions on plans for the 2010 census and the American
Community Survey. On March 15 (8:30 am - 5:15 pm), the five committees
will meet jointly with the Census Advisory Committee of Professional
Associations and the Commerce Department's Decennial Census Advisory
Committee, to discuss the findings of the Census Bureau's Executive
Steering Committee on the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Policy
(ESCAP). The Decennial Census Advisory Committee will continue its
meeting on March 16 (8:30 am -- 1:30 pm), with presentations by Bureau
staff on Census 2000 evaluation plans and working group sessions.
All of the meetings will take place at the Doubletree Hotel, 300 Army
Navy Drive, Arlington, VA, and are open to the public.
Census data products update: In response to requests from data users,
the Census Bureau has decided to release housing unit counts for
functioning governmental units (states, cities, American Indian
reservations, etc.) during May 2001. The Bureau had planned the first
release of housing unit counts as part of Summary File 1 (SF-1), which
will be available on a flow basis from June through September 2001 on
the Internet. SF-1 will provide data down to the census block or tract
levels, and will include occupancy status and owner/renter status, among
other population and housing characteristics.
Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be
directed to Terri Ann Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at
<mailto:terriann2k@aol.com>. For copies of previous News Alerts and
other information, use our web site www.census2000.org
<http://www.census2000.org>. Please direct all requests to receive News
Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000
Initiative at <mailto:Census2000@ccmc.org> or 202/326-8700. Please feel
free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested
individuals.
--
Ed Christopher
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
U.S. Department of Transportation
400 Seventh Street SW
Washington DC 20590
202-366-0412