I just wanted to chime in with this discussion. In my region (Little Rock AR
MSA) it's clear that the city estimates are heavily driven by census county
estimates. The estimates for the largest five cities in our central county
all show 0.9% growth 2010-2011. This is absurd; these five cities varied in
the 2000-2010 interval between outright decline in one case and 63 percent
growth in another. The building permits and all other local evidence
suggests that they are not all growing at 0.9 percent in unison.
Therefore I express my agreement that there's something very wrong with the
place/MCD estimates released on July 1. Since these estimates are
fundamentally misleading, they are worse than nothing at all.
Jonathan Lupton
From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net]
On Behalf Of wendell cox
Sent: Monday, July 02, 2012 5:20 PM
To: ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net
Subject: Re: [CTPP] Census pop estimates
That is a crucial question that needs to be answered.
On Mon, Jul 2, 2012 at 9:54 PM, Patty Becker <pbecker(a)umich.edu> wrote:
Gee, I hope not. But it's very unclear what's going on. Loud protests might
help.
At 05:42 PM 7/2/2012, wendell cox wrote:
Will this be their approach in future year estimates as well?
Best regards
Wendell Cox
On Mon, Jul 2, 2012 at 9:13 PM, Patty Becker <pbecker(a)umich.edu> wrote:
The bottom line here is that the Census Bureau has abandoned its previous
methods for calculating the subcounty estimates. For 2011, they basically
carried the county % change in household population down to the sub-county
units (MCDs and places), apparently holding the GQ pop count the same as the
2010 count (most of the time).
In my personal view, coming from a strong MCD state, it would have been
better if they had just not done 2011 estimates at all.
Patty Becker
At 08:57 AM 7/2/2012, Ed Christopher wrote:
This is an interesting article Wendell Cox sent me from a friend of
friend. We all remember when the Census Bureau changed from using
county based estimates to using sub-county estimates in 2009 which are
then used to factor and weight the ACS. I had thought the process of
going from a county to a sub-county was a little more sophisticated but
maybe its not.
http://www.urbanophile.com/2012/06/30/misreferencing-misoverestimated-popula
tion-by-chris-briem/
--
Ed Christopher
708-283-3534 (V)
708-574-8131 (cell)
FHWA RC-TST-PLN
4749 Lincoln Mall Drive, Suite 600
Matteson, IL 60443
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Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois MSA
Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris
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BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS
War on the Dream
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<http://www.demographia.com/wod1.pdf>
International Housing Affordability Survey
demographia.com/dhi.pdf
<http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf>
The Wal-Mart Revolution (with Richard Vedder)
Demographia World Urban Areas
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Wendell Cox +1.618 632 8507
Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois MSA
Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris
Contributing Editor
newgeography.com <http://www.newgeography.com/>
www.demographia.com |
www.publicpurpose.com |
www.rentalcartours.net
BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS
War on the Dream
demographia.com/wod1.pdf
<http://www.demographia.com/wod1.pdf>
International Housing Affordability Survey
demographia.com/dhi.pdf
<http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf>
The Wal-Mart Revolution (with Richard Vedder)
Demographia World Urban Areas
demographia.com/worldua.pdf
<http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf>