I just wanted to chime in with this discussion. In my region (Little Rock AR MSA) it’s clear that the city estimates are heavily driven by census county estimates. The estimates for the largest five cities in our central county all show 0.9% growth 2010-2011. This is absurd; these five cities varied in the 2000-2010 interval between outright decline in one case and 63 percent growth in another. The building permits and all other local evidence suggests that they are not all growing at 0.9 percent in unison.
Therefore I express my agreement that there’s something very wrong with the place/MCD estimates released on July 1. Since these estimates are fundamentally misleading, they are worse than nothing at all.
Jonathan Lupton
From: ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of wendell cox
Sent: Monday, July 02, 2012 5:20 PM
To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
Subject: Re: [CTPP] Census pop estimates
That is a crucial question that needs to be answered.
On Mon, Jul 2, 2012 at 9:54 PM, Patty Becker <pbecker@umich.edu> wrote:
Gee, I hope not. But it's very unclear what's going on. Loud protests might help.
At 05:42 PM 7/2/2012, wendell cox wrote:
Will this be their approach in future year estimates as well?
Best regards
Wendell Cox
On Mon, Jul 2, 2012 at 9:13 PM, Patty Becker <pbecker@umich.edu> wrote:
The bottom line here is that the Census Bureau has abandoned its previous methods for calculating the subcounty estimates. For 2011, they basically carried the county % change in household population down to the sub-county units (MCDs and places), apparently holding the GQ pop count the same as the 2010 count (most of the time).
In my personal view, coming from a strong MCD state, it would have been better if they had just not done 2011 estimates at all.
Patty Becker
At 08:57 AM 7/2/2012, Ed Christopher wrote:
This is an interesting article Wendell Cox sent me from a friend of
friend. We all remember when the Census Bureau changed from using
county based estimates to using sub-county estimates in 2009 which are
then used to factor and weight the ACS. I had thought the process of
going from a county to a sub-county was a little more sophisticated but
maybe its not.
http://www.urbanophile.com/2012/06/30/misreferencing-misoverestimated-population-by-chris-briem/
--
Ed Christopher
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www.demographia.com | www.publicpurpose.com | www.rentalcartours.net
BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS
War on the Dream demographia.com/wod1.pdf
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Wendell Cox +1.618 632 8507
Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois MSA
Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris
Contributing Editor newgeography.com
www.demographia.com | www.publicpurpose.com | www.rentalcartours.net
BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS
War on the Dream demographia.com/wod1.pdf
International Housing Affordability Survey demographia.com/dhi.pdf
The Wal-Mart Revolution (with Richard Vedder)
Demographia World Urban Areas demographia.com/worldua.pdf