24 May
2000
24 May
'00
11:18 a.m.
From: Census2000 <Census2000(a)ccmc.org>
GAO Cites Census Progress, But House Chairman Angered By Memo Suggesting
Bureau Non-Cooperation
Plus: Nearly 40 Percent of Household Follow-up Visits Completed;
Mail-back Rate Hits 66 Percent;
Voting Rights Act Reviews of State Laws Continue
In testimony before Congress last week, the U.S. General Accounting
Office (GAO) said initial assessments of Census 2000 are "encouraging,
with major operations reportedly proceeding on schedule and generally
performing as planned." GAO representatives cited the initial 65
percent mail-back rate as "particularly noteworthy," noting that
response by mail reduces both costs and the scope of follow-up field
activities while improving data quality, even though it "does not
guarantee a successful census." The legislative watchdog agency
presented its evaluation at a May 10th hearing of the House Subcommittee
on the Census.
An analysis of Census Bureau data showed that nearly all households
(99.89 percent, or 76.77 million) that responded during the first phase
of the census returned their form by mail; only 0.09 percent (about
66,000) answered over the Internet, while 0.02 percent (about 17,000)
gave their answers over the phone. The GAO also discussed the 12.5
percent gap in mail response between short form and long form
households, twice the projected response differential of 6.2 percent.
The wider gap, the auditors said, was due primarily to a
higher-than-expected short form response rate (66.6% returned v. 62.1%
projected) rather than "a meltdown on the long form" (54.1% returned v.
55.9% projected).
The GAO's testimony included other analyses based on Census Bureau data,
of initial responses to the census during mail out/mail back
operations. GAO auditors concluded that mail response rates by Local
Census Office (LCO) ranged from 39 to 80 percent; LCOs in inner city and
urban areas generally had better-than-expected response rates, while
many suburban, small town, and rural LCOs fell short of the Bureau's
expectations; and all but 16 of the 511 LCOs had met or exceeded their
hiring goals for the start of NRFU. Interested stakeholders can obtain
copies of GAO's testimony (GAO/T-GGD/AIMD-00-164) and other GAO reports
by visiting the agency's website at <http://www.gao.gov>.
Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) continued to express concern
about the schedule for completing follow-up visits to unresponsive
households, suggesting that enumerators would be forced to gather
information from neighbors and landlords to finish their caseloads on
time. The GAO said the 10-week period for NRFU is "ambitious," noting
that the bureau "needed more time to follow-up on far fewer housing
units" in 1980 and 1990, but said the larger temporary workforce in 2000
might help the bureau complete the operation on schedule. They pointed
to enumerator productivity and turnover rates as key factors affecting
the pace of the follow-up work. The Census Bureau hopes to rely on
so-called "proxy data" from indirect sources for six percent or less of
unresponsive housing units, according to GAO auditors.
Internal Census Bureau memo sparks new controversy: However, a
significant portion of the hearing focused not on Census 2000 operations
but on an internal Census Bureau memorandum from the Los Angeles
regional census office concerning various reporting requirements during
the 'nonresponse follow-up' (NRFU) phase of the count. At the start of
the hearing, Chairman Miller displayed a copy of an e-mail communication
sent by a "mid-level Census Bureau Manager" to lower level managers that
he said was brought to his attention late the previous day. The
chairman highlighted one paragraph of the short memorandum, which read,
"I will try to get the D-333D report to you all on a daily basis.
However this report must and cannot be shared with any GAO
representative. This a report that must be shared with any one else
except the management staff." (Note: Apparent typographical and
grammatical errors were contained in the original text.) A D-333D form
is used to report the progress of Local Census Offices in collecting
information from unresponsive households during NRFU.
Rep. Miller said the memorandum is "a very serious matter that cuts to
the heart of this census and severely calls into question the Census
Bureau's credibility." "I am appalled. ...I take it personally. This
Congress takes it personally," he continued. The chairman said he would
seek "full accountability" for the memorandum's contents and that he
believed a more senior Census Bureau employee had issued the instruction
to withhold the progress reports from the GAO. He concluded his
statement by questioning whether other bureau documents have been or
will be withheld from public scrutiny. "Today, there is reason to be
worried," the congressman said.
The panel's senior Democratic member, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), said
she was not informed about the existence of the memorandum until shortly
before the start of the hearing. She suggested that the subcommittee
should ask Census Bureau Director Prewitt for an explanation before
drawing any conclusions about the meaning of the paragraph cited by the
chairman. Later in the hearing, Rep. Maloney read a statement from the
director, who also learned about the memorandum's existence earlier that
morning. Dr. Prewitt told the subcommittee that his agency does not
have a policy directing its employees to withhold information from the
GAO, but that lower and mid-level managers are instructed to consult
with senior managers before responding to any requests from oversight
bodies for information. He noted that GAO staff already have full
access to the NRFU workload data contained in the D-333D forms.
Under questioning from subcommittee members, the GAO's representative
called the e-mail reference to his agency "disturbing," but acknowledged
that the Census Bureau has complied with all GAO requests for
information and that investigators have access to the figures reported
on the D-333Ds.
'Nonresponse follow-up' visits continue at steady pace: Census
enumerators have counted 39 percent of the 42.4 million households
requiring a follow-up visit, the Census Bureau announced at press
briefing on May 16. The 'nonresponse follow-up' work started on April
27 and is scheduled to continue through July 7. The bureau has hired
460,000 census takers to visit households that did not mail back a
questionnaire. The completion rate for follow-up visits includes vacant
households and addresses found to be nonexistent.
As with mail response rates in the first phase of Census 2000, the pace
of counting unresponsive households varied by census region, bureau
officials said. The Denver and Los Angeles regions posted the highest
follow-up completion rates so far, at 50 percent, while only 31 percent
of households that enumerators must visit in person have been counted.
Dr. Prewitt said the bureau could not yet predict if NRFU would finish
on schedule, although the deadline could be met if the current pace of
counting previously unresponsive households continues. The director
noted that the bureau had not yet encountered problems with insufficient
staffing and employee turnover, two difficulties that plagued the
follow-up counting operation in 1990. In an earlier statement, he
praised the "dedication and achievements of census workers ...for the
continued good progress of Census 2000."
As part of quality control efforts, census enumerators also are visiting
households that mailed back a questionnaire without sufficient
information (i.e. forms listing only occupant names or the number of
residents) or with conflicting information (i.e. forms containing
information for fewer people than the reported number of residents), as
well as households reporting six or more residents or a high number of
unrelated occupants. Dr. Prewitt said two to three percent of all
households were likely to encounter census workers more than once
because of various quality control operations, including the 300,000
household Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation survey.
Only days earlier, at a May 12 meeting of the Committee on National
Statistics (National Academy of Sciences), Census Bureau Deputy Director
William Barron, Jr. announced that census takers had successfully
counted 30 percent of the unresponsive households. "[T]he census
continues to be running very well and all operations are meeting or
exceeding our expectations," the deputy director said. The GAO reported
to Congress on May 10 that 17.4 percent of the field follow-up had been
completed by May 8. Rep. Carolyn Maloney called the progress of the
follow-up visits an "amazing accomplishment," and added that the "good
news ...ironically is disappointing some in Congress."
Final mail response rate revised: Check-in of late census questionnaires
has boosted the Census 2000 mail response rate to 66 percent, the Census
Bureau reported last week. The revised figure exceeds the 1990
mail-back rate of 65 percent, marking the first time since the Census
Bureau started distributing census forms primarily by mail in 1970 that
the mail response rate has not declined from the previous decennial
count. Seventeen percent of states and localities met or exceeded their
'Plus 5' goal of increasing their mail response by at least five percent
over their 1990 rate.
A revised mail response rate is not unusual; in 1990, the initial 63
percent response rate crept up to 65 percent as the Census Bureau
accounted for all questionnaires returned by mail. The 2000 mail
response rate represents the percent of all households in the 'mail
back' universe that returned a questionnaire by mail or provided their
answers by telephone or over the Internet. It does not include 'Be
Counted' forms, which do not bear a unique geographic code tying the
response to a specific address, or remote households that were counted
by enumerators during 'list/enumerate' or 'update/enumerate' operations.
Congressional hearings: The House Subcommittee on the Census will hold a
hearing on May 19 on the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE) phase of
Census 2000. Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt will discuss the
program, which is designed to measure the accuracy of the population
counts derived from the mail out/mail back and nonresponse follow-up
operations and to correct undercounts and overcounts using statistical
methods. Preliminary activities for the ACE program begin this month,
with interviews of the 300,000 households in the quality-check survey
starting June 19. The hearing will start at 9:30 a.m. in room 2247
Rayburn House Office Building. (Note: This hearing originally was
scheduled for May 18.)
Stakeholder activities: The United States Conference of City Human
Services Officials (USCCHSO), an affiliate of the U.S. Conference of
Mayors (USCM), held a press conference on May 9 to highlight the
involvement of city leaders in the Census 2000 promotional campaign, How
America Knows What America Needs. USCCHSO President Willa Lister said,
"Human service officials have direct contact with traditionally
undercounted populations and can explain the importance of an accurate
census count and emphasize the confidentiality of census data." Ann
Azari, a past chairwoman of the Commerce Secretary's 2000 Census
Advisory Committee, joined Ms. Lister in explaining the "Because You
Count" phase of the promotional effort. Ms. Azari, herself a former
mayor of Fort Collins, CO, said the goal and focus of the campaign is
"civic engagement." Laverne Collins, an 18-year veteran of the Census
Bureau, said she wanted to convey four key messages: (1) Census 2000 is
not over; (2) people should cooperate with enumerators when they visit
unresponsive households; (3) all census responses are confidential; and
(4) it is important to answer all questions on the census forms.
State legislative activities update: The New Jersey state legislature is
considering a bill (A. 1682) that would bar the use of statistically
corrected census numbers for redistricting. The Assembly's State
Affairs Committee will hold a hearing on May 22 to review the proposal.
Virginia officials have asked a federal court to approve its new law
prohibiting the use of census data compiled in part through sampling and
statistical methods for congressional and state redistricting. The
case, Commonwealth of Virginia v. Reno et al. (Case No. 1:00CV00751),
will be heard by a three-judge panel of the U.S. District Court for the
District of Columbia, in accordance with section 5 of the 1965 Voting
Rights Act (as amended). Under the statute, either party can appeal the
lower court decision directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, which must
issue a ruling in the case (known as 'mandatory jurisdiction'). The
state filed the suit on April 10, 2000.
In Alaska, also one of 16 states covered by the Voting Rights Act
section 5 'pre-clearance' requirements, Attorney General James L.
Baldwin responded on May 4 to a U.S. Department of Justice (USDOJ)
request for additional information in support of two bills enacted last
year that (in relevant part) prohibit the use of statistically-corrected
census numbers for redistricting purposes. The state submitted House
Joint Resolution No. 44 and Senate Bill No. 99 to the USDOJ for approval
on September 21, 1999; the USDOJ Civil Rights Division's Voting Section
requested more information on November 18, 1999, "to determine that the
proposed procedures do not have the purpose and will not have the effect
of denying or abridging the right to vote on account of race, color, or
membership in a language minority group." The Justice Department has 60
days to approve or disapprove the bills, which went into law without the
signature of Governor Tony Knowles (D).
Correction: In the May 8th News Alert, we inadvertently included the
National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) as a participant in an
April 25 press conference on the importance of census long form data.
Housing Assistance Council (HAC) Executive Director Moises Loza
participated in the event, along with Betty Weiss, Executive Director of
the National Neighborhood Coalition, and Ricardo Villalobos, Census
Project director for the Center for Community Change. We apologize for
the error. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert
may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at
terriann2k(a)aol.com. For copies of previous News Alerts and other
information, use our web site www.census2000.org
<http://www.census2000.org>. Please direct all requests to receive News
Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000
Initiative at Census2000(a)ccmc.org or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to
circulate this information to colleagues and other interested
individuals.