RE: [CTPP] TELUM

Jonathan, Our Agency, the Pueblo Metropolitan Planning Organization, has used TELUM to develop forecasts of population, housing and employment with moderate success. Although our ultimate intent was to develop forecasts for the 306 individual transport analysis zones within our jurisdiction, our initial set of TELUM forecasts were for the 40 census tracts that comprise our region. We did not use TELUM to forecast by individual TAZ's, but rather used the tract forecasts which TELUM developed as control totals for the more detailed zonal forecasts. You are certainly correct in your assessment of the amount of time and effort required to obtain input data to calibrate and run the model successfully. We had the assistance of several individuals with expertise in ArcGis to facilitate this process, otherwise, the constraints to obtain the data might have been unmanageable. The TELUM documentation, pages 4.5, 4.6, seems to imply that the larger the geographic area, the more reliable the forecasts developed by TELUM. For this reason, our run of the TELUM model was based on census tracts. In the calibration phase, you may have a situation where not all of the statistical parameters used to obtain a reality check are consistent. I would suggest that you may wish to run the model anyway, even though one or two of the statistical tests are 'off the wall.' We used TELUM to forecast to 2035. In the broadest sense of the word, the TELUM forecasts seemed reasonable, although there may be a number of zones where the results just don't make sense. In these cases, you will have to use rerun the model. TELUM has a useful feature allowing you to constrain growth within certain zones before you rerun it. The single most recurring issue I had with the TELUM forecasts is that they tended to over forecast population growth within older, developed residential areas of our metro area. Some changes in density patterns over time in these areas can be expected, just now to the extent that TELUM suggested. I would reiterate that using a top-down approach may have merit. Use TELUM to develop a set of regional (tract level) forecasts, then subsequently use the tract forecasts to forecast to a finer geographic level. You're right. TELUM requires a lot of work. Don R. Vest Pueblo Area Council of Governments Urban Transportation Planning Division 223 N. Santa Fe Ave. Pueblo, CO 81003 Tel. (719) 553-2947 (direct) -----Original Message----- From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net]On Behalf Of Jonathan Lupton Sent: Friday, July 18, 2008 8:10 AM To: ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net Subject: [CTPP] TELUM Follow members of the CTPP listserve: Although this is not technically a CTPP issue, it is related. My organization is trying to use the NJIT's new land use modeling software, TELUM. We have spent a lot of time and effort putting together the data inputs for this model, but cannot make it work reliably. So I am querying my fellow MPO's and other transportation/land use modelers and planners: has anybody had much luck with TELUM? For that matter, any luck with TELUM's predecessors, DRAM and EMPAL? I am trying to decide whether or not to continue using TELUM for our upcoming transportation model. NJIT staff have been helpful, but they are half a continent away and after two or three months of devoted effort our model still crashes on calibration. I may have to scrap TELUM and go back to conventional methods. I would appreciate any ideas, tips, etc. Thanks! Jonathan Lupton Research Planner Metroplan Little Rock AR 501-372-3300 _______________________________________________ ctpp-news mailing list ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net http://www.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news This e-mail transmission (including any attachments) contains information that is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the use of the addressee only. If you received this e-mail in error, we request that you contact us immediately by telephone or return e-mail, and that you delete this message from your computer. If you are not the intended recipient, please be advised that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited.