Re: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ socioeconomic data

Ok, there are a few ways to do the socio-economic data projections for the future year (normally around 20 to 25 years). As you have mentioned if you have the socio-economic data from the ACS at the census tract level from the 1960 to 2010, then you could extrapolate the data points by a linear, exponential or some kind of logistic curves/models with a build-out condition if that data is available. In Palm Beach we coordinate with the local governments and obtain the latest future land use maps, we project population and employment based on the future land use maps, redevelopments, TODs, TDRs, Multi-modal districts, etc. that are approved in the comp. plan. There are pros and cons for each of the methodologies, the bottom line is projections are extremely tricky especially in social science. Vinod Sandanasamy, AICP Senior Transportation Planner Palm Beach Metropolitan Planning Organization 2300 North Jog Road, 4th Floor West Palm Beach, FL 33411-2749 Phone: 561-478 5747 Fax: 561-233 5664 Email: vsandana@PalmBeachMPO.org<mailto:NFernandez@PalmBeachMPO.org> Website: www.pbcgov.com/mpo<http://www.pbcgov.com/mpo> [cid:image002.png@01CD2EA5.52F916F0] From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Benito Perez Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2012 10:27 AM To: ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net Subject: [CTPP] Analyzing historical geospatial Census data to assist in forecasting TAZ socioeconomic data All, Good morning. Wanted to solicit ideas, tools, resources that others may be aware of in analyzing historical census data to develop growth trends that can be used in forecasting socioeconomic data for our travel demand model's traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Thoughts? At this point I have gathered Census tract geospatial data for our region (Hampton Roads) as far back as 1960, Census Block Group geospatial data from 1990 onwards, and Census Block geospatial data from 2000 onwards. The hope is to do a geospatial analysis with these data sets to geospatially identify growth patterns across our region. Thanks for your time in your thoughts on this. I'll be cross-posting this on the TMIP listserv as well. [cid:image003.jpg@01CD2EA5.52F916F0] Benito O. Pérez, AICP Transportation Engineer Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization The Regional Building 723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake Virginia 23320 bperez@hrpdcva.gov<mailto:bperez@hrpdcva.gov>| http://www.hrtpo.org<http://www.hrtpo.org/>| Phone: 757.420.8300 | Fax: 757.523.4881 All email correspondence to and from this address is subject to the Virginia Freedom of Information Act and to the Virginia Public Records Act, which may result in monitoring and disclosure to third parties, including law enforcement. ________________________________ Under Florida law, e-mail addresses are public records. If you do not want your e-mail address released in response to a public records request, do not send electronic mail to this entity. Instead, contact this office by phone or in writing.