RE: [CTPP] Census Data in High Vacation Rental Areas

-----Original Message----- From: Richard Lin [mailto:richard.lin@state.co.us] Sent: Wednesday, June 13, 2007 12:16 PM To: ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net; Fernando DePaolis; djbeaty(a)pbsj.com Cc: Cindy DeGroen; Elizabeth Garner; Jim Westkott Subject: RE: [CTPP] Census Data in High Vacation Rental Areas Dear Fernando and All, In population statistics, a person can only be counted once and only once. Therefore, if a person lives in his/her usual (permanent) residence but also owns a second home (vacation home), his/her second home should be counted as vacant except it is rented out as permanent (long term; such as one-year lease) residence for the renters. Unless you have an annual updated formal report of the rental list by number of residents, the IRS income tax report (or county-to-county IRS migration flow) is the best administrative record for the estimates of population change. The only shortcoming of the IRS report is that it does not cover the illegal immigrants and those who either do not file income tax report or who do file income tax report using address other than the rental address. Underestimated second home renters? Maybe. Overestimated? Possible. The best solution is to have a census count (or canvass; or administrative record) by well defined residence rule (a person can only be counted once and only once). Hope the difficult issue keep demographers alive. ________________________________ Richard Lin, Ph.D. Demographer Colorado Department of Local Affairs Division of Local Government 1313 Sherman Street, Room 521 Denver, CO 80203 Phone: (303)866-4989 Fax:: (303)866-2660 richard.lin(a)state.co.us www.DOLA.Colorado.Gov We have the same problem in the mountain communities where there is a large proportion of "second" homes, not necessarily for rent... it's been quite frustrating but at some point we'll have a method to deal with that... probably based on reports from local governments... the main problem in forecasting those figures is the high volatility of such markets... Our view is that "the Census" doesn't deal with the underlying cause of vacancy very well... Regards, Fernando DePaolis, Ph.D. Regional Economist DRCOG - Denver Regional Council of Governments 4500 Cherry Creek Dr South Suite 800 Denver CO 80246-1531 (303)480-6728 fdepaolis(a)drcog.org www.drcog.org <http://www.drcog.org/> This is a private message sent on my DRCOG email account pursuant to DRCOG's Internet Policy. This email and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please disregard. Any views or opinions presented in this email are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of DRCOG. _____ From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Beaty, Daniel J Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2007 2:50 PM To: ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net Subject: [CTPP] Census Data in High Vacation Rental Areas I want to know if anyone else has had experience with Census data seeming to under represent population and vacancy rates in areas with high concentrations of vacation rental property that tends to be seasonal in nature. I am working on a project that has this situation and I'm would like to know if this is an anomaly or if others have seen this also. Thanks, Daniel J. Beaty, AICP PBS&J Transportation Planning Program Manager 1901 Commonwealth Lane Tallahassee, Florida 32303 Phone: 850.575.1800 Ext. 7914 Fax: 850.574.2428