From: Census2000 &lt;Census2000(a)ccmc.org&gt; Government Auditors Examine Census 2000 Funding Request Senate Weighs in on 'Marital Status' Question; Race Tabulations Set for Redistricting Data The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) last week issued a report on the increased cost of Census 2000 following a Supreme Court decision that forced the Census Bureau to revise its plan. The analysis, requested by House Census Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL), examines the extra $1.7 billion the Bureau says it needs in fiscal year 2000 (FY00) to conduct a traditional census, without sampling methods, for purposes of congressional apportionment. The Bureau's original FY00 budget request was for $2.8 billion; it revised the Census 2000 plan after the Supreme Court ruled in January that federal law barred the use of sampling to produce the population totals used for congressional apportionment. GAO auditors found that the $1.7 billion requested cost increase "resulted primarily from changes in assumptions relating to a substantial increase in workload, reduced employee productivity, and increased advertising." They noted that the Bureau expected to visit 46 million instead of 30 million unresponsive households under the revised plan, including 12 million whose characteristics would have been estimated under the original census plan, and another 4 million addresses identified as vacant or nonexistent by the Postal Service. New quality control programs, such as re-interviewing a sample of households, also added to the cost, although the GAO said it is not clear if the new activities would increase census accuracy. Overall, the expected workload increase resulted in higher cost estimates for salaries and benefits, travel, data processing, supplies, and infrastructure requirements (such as office space and telephone capacity). The Bureau's revised budget request for FY00 also includes an extra $72 million for more advertising, which it hopes will increase public awareness and voluntary response. However, the Bureau did not assume any potential cost savings from a better-than-expected response rate, the GAO said. The GAO reported that a 20 percent reduction in assumed productivity for enumerators - from 1.28 to 1.03 households per hour - contributed substantially to the added cost. According to the GAO, the Bureau did not provide documentation to support the productivity rates, relying instead on "senior management judgments" that the Bureau described as "very conservative." In a letter to the GAO commenting on a draft of the report, Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt said the productivity assumptions "represent prudent management," citing "an unyielding calendar" and a "mail response rate [that] is largely out of our control." Overall, the Bureau concurred with the information set forth in the GAO study. In a statement issued after the study was released, Dr. Prewitt said, "I can report to the American public that we have the budget right, our plan is launched, and we are on schedule and on track for Census 2000." He called on Americans to "take ownership of this census" to produce the most accurate and cost-effective count possible. According to the Bureau's written statement, GAO found that only $104 million, or six percent, of the $1.7 billion cost increase was not related to the prohibition on sampling for congressional apportionment purposes. The GAO also reported that the projected cost per housing unit for Census 2000 is four times greater than in 1970 and twice as much as in 1990. The GAO calculated (in constant fiscal year 1998 dollars) a cost of $13 per housing unit for the 1970 census, $31 for 1990, and a projected $56 for 2000. (Census costs are based on the full cycle of census planning, implementation, and data dissemination, which for Census 2000 will run from 1991 - 2003.) Congressional reaction to the GAO study was sharply divided. In a written statement, Rep. Miller said "the Bureau appears to be on shaky fiscal ground." As evidence, he said the Census Bureau "ignor[ed]" the 1997 requirement that the Bureau prepare for a census with and without sampling methods, "lower[ed] productivity rates without justification," and failed to include any cost savings that might result if more advertising increases response rates. "Contrary to claims from the Commerce Department, faulty Bureau assumptions and questionable cost estimates by Bureau managers are not the result of the Supreme Court's decision," Rep. Miller said. The chairman said the Bureau should receive its full funding request for the coming year, but that a thorough audit of the agency might be necessary in the future. "[I]f not for the Republican Congress," he concluded, "the entire census would have been completed illegally and cost billions to repeat." The census subcommittee's senior Democrat, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), also released a written statement, saying the GAO "verified the accuracy of the Census Bureau's financial plan" for Census 2000. "[T]he GAO determined that the Census Bureau's internal cost model calculations were both accurately drafted and reasonable projections," the congresswoman stated. Referring to the likelihood that Congress will have to pass a short-term spending bill to keep most federal agencies running beyond the end of the fiscal year on September 30, Rep. Maloney said the Bureau "needs and deserves funding which is adequate, consistent, and predictable." To obtain copies of "Census 2000: Analysis of Fiscal Year 2000 Budget Amendment" (GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291), write to U.S. General Accounting Office, P.O. Box 37050, Washington, D.C. 20013; call 202/512-6000; or visit the GAO website at <http://www.gao.gov>. The first copy of each report is free. Census questions still target of congressional concern: The U.S. Senate approved an amendment to the Transportation Department spending bill, expressing its collective opinion that the Census Bureau should continue to ask all Americans about their marital status by collecting the information on the census short form that goes to all households. The Census 2000 long form that will be sent to one in six households includes a question on marital status. Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC), sponsor of the resolution, said, "It is irresponsible for the U.S. government to suggest or imply that marriage is no longer significant or important, but that is precisely the message that will go out if marital status is eliminated from the short form. ..Americans should be disturbed that the U.S. Census Bureau obviously no longer regards marriage as having any importance." The non-binding 'Sense of the Senate' resolution was adopted on September 15th by a 94 - 0 vote. In a statement on the Senate floor the next day, Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-HI) said that moving the marital status question from the short form (in 1990) to the long form (in 2000) was "hardly a frivolous decision," but rather was an effort by the Bureau "to comply with Congressional mandates." The long form produces data for areas as small as 'block groups,' while short form data is produced for areas as small as blocks, a level of detail that is needed primarily for redistricting. Following the 1990 count, Congress criticized the length of the census forms and directed the Census Bureau to reduce the amount of data gathered. In response, the Bureau and the Office of Management and Budget (which oversees federal data activities) decided to collect only data mandated or required by Federal law or Federal court decisions in the 2000 census. The marital status question was moved from the short to the long form because the data is not needed at the block level. As required by law, the Census Bureau submitted to Congress on March 31, 1997 (three years before Census Day) the subject matters it intended to include on the short and long forms. It submitted on March 30, 1998 (two years before Census Day) the actual questions it would include on each form, also as required by law. The Bureau did not receive any comments from Congress on the proposed shift of the marital status question. When the Senate adopted the Helms resolution on September 15, 1999, the Census Bureau had already printed almost 250 million questionnaires for Census 2000. 'Sense of Congress' resolutions do not have the force of law. The Helms amendment does not actually require the Bureau to change the forms. 'Sense of Congress' provisions in spending bills often are dropped by House-Senate conference committees that must produce a final measure; however, USA Today reported on September 23rd that members of the House Family Caucus might champion a similar resolution in that chamber. Race/ethnic tabulations set for redistricting data: After consultations with the U.S. Department of Justice and other stakeholders, the Census Bureau has decided to provide data for 63 race categories, combined with the separate Hispanic origin responses, in the block-level data transmitted to the States for redistricting by April 1, 2001. The 63 categories represent all of the possible single and multiple responses to the race question (there are five distinct races, plus "Some other race"); each category is then identified as "of Hispanic origin" or "not of Hispanic origin." (Hispanic is considered an ethnicity, not a race, in the federal standards on the collection of race and ethnic data.) The redistricting files (often called P.L. 94-171 data, after the public law requiring the information) also include voting age tabulations (18 years of age and over). Census Bureau staff are continuing their discussions about how to tabulate responses to the race question for all other Census 2000 data products. Other tabulation methods being considered include the "all inclusive" distribution (multiple-race responses would be assigned to each of the selected single race categories, resulting in totals that exceed 100 percent of respondents), and the "single race" distribution (single race responses would be reported independently, and all multiple-race responses would be included in a category called, "Two or more races.") State legislative activity update: The State of Alaska has asked the U.S. Department of Justice (USDOJ) to approve a new law prohibiting the use of census numbers derived with sampling methods for post-census redistricting. Alaska enacted Senate Bill 99 last spring after Governor Tony Knowles (D) returned the measure without his signature to the state legislature, allowing the broader redistricting bill to become law despite his opposition to the anti-sampling provision. Alaska is one of 16 states covered in whole or in part by section 5 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which requires approval from USDOJ for any changes to election law. The 'pre-clearance' process is intended to prevent changes that have the purpose or effect of denying or abridging the right to vote of racial, ethnic, or language minorities. Because Alaska has only one representative in Congress, the new law would affect the redrawing of state Senate and House of Representatives district lines if it passes USDOJ muster. USDOJ has 60 days after a state submits the law to approve or disapprove the measure, or to ask for additional information. Congressional hearing scheduled on address list program: The House Subcommittee on the Census will hold a hearing on September 29 to review the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program. The LUCA program was designed to involve local governments in developing the nationwide address list (called the 'Master Address File,' or MAF) for Census 2000, essentially replacing the pre-census and post-census Local Review operations used in 1990. The hearing is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. in room 2247 Rayburn House Office Building. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at terriann2k(a)aol.com . For copies of previous News Alerts and other information, use our web site www.census2000.org <http://www.census2000.org>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000 Initiative at Census2000(a)ccmc.org or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.