Date:Wed, 3 Oct 2001 From:Census2000 &lt;Census2000(a)ccmc.org&gt; Census Bureau Facing Second Decision on Whether to Recommend Use of Adjusted Numbers Plus: Census Monitoring Board Disbands; Census Funding Update; Report on Counting Americans Living Abroad; and more. The Census Bureau continued its evaluations of Census 2000 and the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.) program as it moves closer to a self-imposed mid-October deadline for recommending whether adjusted census data should be used for purposes other than redistricting, such as the allocation of federal grants and federal survey controls. The A.C.E. program included a quality-check, 'post enumeration' survey of 314,000 households, designed to assess the number of people missed and double-counted in the census. In a letter last month to Democratic congressional overseers, Acting Census Bureau Director William Barron said that a decision to adjust the census data must be "made on solid technical grounds" and meet "pre-specified criteria" for gauging the relatively accuracy of the raw and A.C.E.-adjusted numbers. The Census Bureau still hopes to finish its evaluation of census accuracy by October 15. If it cannot meet that deadline, it would then complete its analysis by the fall of 2002, a schedule Mr. Barron said paralleled the timetable for deciding whether to adjust the 1990 census for the purpose of distributing federal funds and setting benchmarks for federal surveys. The bureau does not plan to release adjusted numbers publicly until that decision is made. Last March, Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans agreed with a bureau recommendation not to release statistically adjusted census numbers, citing discrepancies between the A.C.E.'s measurement of the population, the raw census counts, and an independent benchmark of the national population derived from "demographic analysis." Bureau experts said they did not have enough time to evaluate the differences between the three measures. The Secretary was required by law to transmit block-level population counts to the states for redrawing political district boundaries, by March 31, 2001. The bureau also raised questions about technical aspects of the adjustment process. At the time, the agency said it would continue to evaluate the results of the census and the A.C.E. program, to determine if the adjusted numbers were more accurate for uses such as doling out roughly $200 billion in federal funds annually to states and localities. The bureau subsequently described its research agenda in an August 7th memorandum. In his September 21 letter, Mr. Barron also said he was "troubled" that some legislators use the term "corrected data" to refer to statistically adjusted numbers, a description he called "misleading and inappropriate." The term might suggest, Mr. Barron wrote, "that one data set is error free, rather than improved (the latter being the best that the [adjustment methodology] could ever be used to achieve)." The director acknowledged that the bureau itself had used the term "corrected" in the past to describe the adjusted numbers. Mr. Barron emphasized that the adjustment process was designed to assess "net error" for different population subgroups, not "gross error" in the census. "Net error" refers to the difference between the number of people missed (undercount, or omissions) and the number counted twice (overcount, or duplications). "Gross error" combines various kinds of mistakes in the census, including people missed or counted twice, people counted in the wrong place, and fictitious people. The bureau looks at the net error for population subgroups in deciding whether a statistical adjustment would improve the accuracy of the census, the director said. Nationally, the bureau reported a net undercount of 3.3 million people based on the A.C.E. survey. The quality-check survey also revealed that 3.1 million people were counted twice or made up ("gross erroneous enumerations"), a measure that allowed the bureau to estimate the number of people missed in the census at 6.4 million people ("gross omissions"), for a minimum of 9.5 million miscounts. Legal update: Several lawsuits challenging the Commerce Secretary's decision not to release statistically adjusted census data to the states for redistricting purposes continue to wind their way through the federal courts. In Oregon, the U.S. District Court will hear arguments on October 18 in a case filed by two state legislators last June, seeking release of the adjusted population numbers under the Freedom of Information Act. Los Angeles and other counties and cities are pursuing their appeal of a district court judge's dismissal of their lawsuit challenging the legality of Secretary Evans' decision to release only unadjusted census data. In April, U.S. District Court Judge Gary Feess ruled that the Secretary based his decision on sufficient evidence that the raw census numbers were the most accurate available, thereby meeting the objectives of the Census Act (title 13, United States Code). Los Angeles asked the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals to review the dismissal of its claim, and filed its opening brief last month. The Commerce Department (represented by the U.S. Department of Justice) has until October 10 to submit its response. A hearing date has not been set. Census Monitoring Board sunsets: The U.S. Census Monitoring Board, created by Congress in late 1997 to oversee planning for and implementation of Census 2000, closed its doors on September 30, when its statutory authority expired. The bipartisan board was comprised of four members appointed by President Bill Clinton with advice from Democratic leaders in Congress (called the Presidential members), and four members appointed by Republican congressional leaders (called the Congressional members). The panel had co-chairs (one Republican and one Democrat) and two executive directors, maintained separate offices at Census Bureau headquarters, and sometimes issued separate reports to Congress. The Presidential and Congressional members issued separate final reports that include recommendations for future census methods and operations. The Presidential members offered 18 recommendations that "will serve as a useful roadmap for 2010," co-chair Gilbert Casellas said in a written statement. Suggestions include: set a fixed term of office for the Census Bureau director, who currently serves at the pleasure of the President; retain a national advertising campaign, local and community-based partnerships, and a quality-check, 'post enumeration survey' in the 2010 census; reach a consensus on methods earlier in the decade; examine the effect of the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program on accuracy; and use 'gross' rather than 'net' error as the primary yardstick of census accuracy. Mr. Casellas noted that despite operational successes in Census 2000, "the differential undercount, while reduced, remains," referring to the historically disproportionate undercount of racial minorities. "The undercount not only hampers Congress in its ability to direct federal funds to place where they are needed, but it also denies to taxpayers the right to have their money come back to their communities in the form of Federal program funds. ...[T]he use of statistically adjusted numbers would have made a difference in people's lives," the co-chairman said. In the their report, the Presidential members also summarized the briefings, hearings, and studies they conducted during the Board's tenure. The Congressional members issued a Summary Report to Congress on September 1, and also prepared a separate analysis of the Census 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation process (not yet printed). The summary identifies several elements of Census 2000 that the Congressional appointees said contributed to a successful census, including the partnership and advertising programs; using competitive and variable pay rates to attract and retain qualified workers; pre-census local government review of address lists (the LUCA program); and allowing regional directors to adapt census procedures to local conditions. The report also concludes that while the census "can be more accurate and more inclusive," statistical adjustment would not "completely eliminate" the differential and net undercounts. The bureau instead should "focus on methods that will work to reduce the actual undercount in the census and to actually help empower the hardest-to-count neighborhoods." The Congressional members offered six recommendations for improving future censuses, including mailing Spanish-language questionnaires to selected neighborhoods, eliminating the long form, and reinstating a "Post Census Local Review" similar to a 1990 operation that allowed local officials to examine their preliminary housing unit counts before the numbers were finalized. Describing their analysis of the A.C.E. process, Congressional Member Co-Chair A. Mark Neuman said, "[C]ontrary to popular belief, people missed in the Census don't get put back in the neighborhoods where they really live. Severely undercounted neighborhoods ...will remain severely undercounted. Statistical adjustment doesn't fix that." The final report of the Presidential members is available through their Web site at www.cmbp.gov <http://www.cmbp.gov>. The Congressional members' final reports are posted on their Web site at www.cmbc.gov <http://www.cmbc.gov>. [Note: Both Internet sites will be accessible for some period of time.] Appropriations (funding) update: The U.S. Senate approved its version of the Commerce Department's fiscal year 2002 spending bill (S. 1215), which includes funds for the Census Bureau, on September 13, sending the bill to a conference committee that will iron out differences with the House-passed version (H.R. 2500). The Senate Commerce, Justice, and State, The Judiciary and Related Agencies Appropriations bill allocates $517.1 million for Census Bureau activities. While the total amount is $26.3 million below the Bush Administration's budget request, appropriators assumed that a $27 million carry-over in the bureau's accounts from prior years would cover the difference. The Senate-passed bill includes $26.2 million - roughly $1 million below the request -- for continued development and testing of the American Community Survey (ACS) at 31 sites around the country. Funding for the Periodic Censuses and Programs account (one of two broad Census Bureau accounts) also covers continued dissemination of Census 2000 data products and Census 2000 evaluations, as well as 2010 census planning activities. The Census 2000 Supplementary Survey (C2SS), a demonstration of the ACS on a national scale, is part of the bureau's 2010 census strategic planning effort. The following senators, all members of the Appropriations Committee, were appointed to the conference committee: Sens. Ernest Hollings (D-SC), Daniel Inouye (D-HI), Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), Patrick Leahy (D-VT), Herbert Kohl (D-WI), Patty Murray (D-WA), Jack Reed (D-RI), Robert Byrd (D-WV), Judd Gregg (R-NH), Ted Stevens (R-AK), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-CO), and Thad Cochran (R-MS). The House of Representatives, which approved its Commerce appropriations bill in July, appointed the following appropriations committee members as conferees: Reps. Frank Wolf (R-VA), Harold Rogers (R-KY), Jim Kolbe (R-AZ), Charles Taylor (R-NC), Ralph Regula (R-OH), Tom Latham (R-IA), Dan Miller (R-FL), David Vitter (R-LA), C.W. Young (R-FL), Jose Serrano (D-NY), Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA), Robert Cramer Jr. (D-AL), Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), and David Obey (D-WI). Fiscal year 2002 started on October 1st. Last week, Congress passed and the President signed a so-called Continuing Resolution, which continues funding for all federal agencies and programs at fiscal year 2001 levels through October 16, giving lawmakers more time to enact new spending bills. Counting Americans abroad in the census: As directed last year by congressional appropriators, the Census Bureau has submitted a report to Congress on the feasibility of counting private American citizens living abroad in the decennial census. In Census 2000, members of the armed forces and civilian government personnel stationed outside of the U.S. during the census were included in the state population totals used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives among the 50 states. Private citizens living in foreign countries have never been counted in the census. In its report, the Census Bureau examined policy, conceptual, and methodological issues associated with such a count. It said "prompt resolution" of key policy issues, such as whether a count of Americans abroad would be used for informational purposes only or for congressional apportionment and redistricting and the allocation of federal funds, was a "precondition" for undertaking research into the methods for an overseas enumeration. Collecting data for political and funding purposes, the bureau said, would "present very formidable challenges." Other key policy questions cited in the report include the implications of voluntary response from Americans abroad, which the bureau said is inevitable, in light of the census' mandatory nature, and determining a "usual residence" for people not living in the U.S., the standard used in counting stateside residents. The report also raises questions about who would be included in an overseas count (i.e. people born in the U.S.; citizens who intend to return to the U.S.; those with proof of citizenship); how to assign Americans abroad to a 'home state' and possibly a specific address; and whether to conduct the count using "self-enumeration," administrative records, or both. To address overarching policy, as well as technical, concerns, the bureau said it would hold a conference in November 2001 to hear the views of Congress and other external stakeholders. If it decides to include private American citizens living abroad in the 2010 census, the bureau would assess proposed methods as part of scheduled census tests in 2004 and 2006 and the2008 dress rehearsal. Congressional update: The House Subcommittee on the Census, established in 1998 as part of the Committee on Government Reform to authorize and oversee Census Bureau activities, will be eliminated at the end of 2001. House Republican leaders announced the move earlier this year as a cost-saving measure. Subcommittee Staff Director Chip Walker told participants at the September quarterly meeting of the Council of Professional Associations in Federal Statistics (COPAFS) that the panel's responsibilities would be transferred to the Subcommittee on Civil Service and Agency Organization. That subcommittee's current chairman, Rep. Joe Scarborough (R-FL), is giving up his congressional seat this month to spend more time with his family. Government Reform Committee member Rep. Dave Weldon (R-FL) is expected to take over as chairman of the Civil Service panel, Mr. Walker reported. Prior to a major House committee reorganization in 1995, the former Subcommittee on Census and Population was part of the Committee on Post Office and Civil Service. The current census subcommittee chairman, Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), announced that he would retire at the end of the 107th Congress in 2002. Condolences: It is with great sadness that the Census 2000 Initiative shares with census stakeholders the following information from Acting Census Bureau Director Barron, concerning the loss of two Census Bureau employees from the New York Regional Office during the September 11 terrorist attacks. Marion Britton, Assistant Regional Director, and Waleska Martinez, Automation Specialist, were both on United Flight 93 that crashed near Pittsburgh, traveling on official business. We extend our deepest sympathy to their families and to their Census Bureau colleagues. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to Terri Ann Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at <mailto:terriann2k@aol.com>. For copies of previous News Alerts and other information, use our web site www.census2000.org <http://www.census2000.org>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000 Initiative at <mailto:Census2000@ccmc.org> or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.