From: Census2000 <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> Sampling Controversy Resurfaces in Congress As Census Director Stands By Plan to Adjust Counts Plus: New Jersey Assembly Approves Anti-Sampling Bill; Legislation Introduced for Count of Overseas Americans; and more. The controversy over the use of statistical sampling to adjust the initial census counts reemerged at a congressional hearing last month, as the Census Bureau began its quality check survey to measure undercounts and overcounts in Census 2000. At a hearing of the House Subcommittee on the Census on May 19, Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt described the agency's plans for the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation survey (A.C.E.) of 314,000 housing units nationwide. Telephone interviews with households in the A.C.E. sample that had returned a completed census form by mail began in late April. By May 19, the Bureau had completed 60,000 interviews by phone, more than its projected 10 percent completion rate for that point in the process. Census takers will start in-person interviews with A.C.E. households on June 19 in areas where census takers have finished all non-response follow-up visits. Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) reiterated his long-standing opposition to the Census Bureau's plan to produce adjusted population numbers based on the A.C.E. results for purposes other than congressional apportionment. "[T]here is no guarantee that this plan is even viable," the chairman said. The Supreme Court ruled 5 to 4 in January 1999 that federal law prohibits sampling to compile the state population totals used to allocate the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among the 50 states. However, the Census Bureau plans to transmit adjusted census figures to the states early next year for use in the redistricting process. A provision of the Bureau's fiscal year 1998 funding bill also requires the agency to make available census counts down to the block level that are not adjusted based on the quality-check survey. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), the panel's senior Democratic member, said the 2000 census "may well be the best, fairest and most accurate census ever," not only because of operational successes so far but because "it incorporates modern scientific methods into its design." The 1990 census, she noted, had a 10 percent error rate, including who are missed, counted twice, or counted in the wrong location. "The closer the Census Bureau has gotten to developing a way to fix those errors, the harder the opponents of a modern census have worked to stop them," Rep. Maloney said, referring to the disproportionate undercount of racial minorities and the poor in urban and rural communities. Rep. Miller said Republicans question the constitutionality, legality, and feasibility of a census plan that incorporates sampling and statistical estimation techniques. He called the decision to issue two sets of census counts "a political move, clearly against the best interest of the Nation" by the Clinton/Gore Administration. Pointing to last year's Supreme Court decision, he cautioned that supporters of the plan "have yet to win a court case." "Census estimation," the chairman said, "is not a system that lends itself to trust and integrity." Rep. Miller described statistical estimation as existing "only in a virtual world," where people are added to or subtracted from the counts without verification. This means, he said, that some people who have filled out and returned a census form "will be counted as less than a whole person." Rep. Miller also criticized an element of the Bureau's statistical methodology that he said assumes people of the same race or ethnicity "act alike and have the same tendencies," by assigning them to one of nearly 450 demographic groupings (called 'post-strata') for the purpose of measuring the under- and overcount. The chairman asked the director for "assurances... that [the adjusted] numbers will be fully scrutinized by the Bureau and the scientific community, at large, prior to their release for public use." Countering the chairman's criticism of the sampling methodology, Dr. Prewitt said the A.C.E. survey was no more difficult than other large Census 2000 operations. He called the census "an estimation of the truth" and said its accuracy should be measured by how close the results are to the nation's true population. The director noted that census data are "unstable" for very small areas (such as census blocks) regardless of whether the figures are adjusted using statistical methods or not. Adjusted census numbers are "unquestionably" more accurate at the block level, Dr. Prewitt said in response to a question from Rep. Miller, than numbers produced from direct counting methods alone. He also defended the use of demographic 'post-strata' to estimate under- and overcounts, saying the groupings were based on scientific knowledge about people with similar probabilities of being missed or double-counted in the census. A panel of experts convened by the National Academy of Sciences (the Panel to Review the 2000 Census, chaired by former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Janet L. Norwood) is independently reviewing the A.C.E. statistical methods and operations. Dr. Prewitt emphasized that while the Bureau has decided to conduct the A.C.E. according to a technically sound design, it cannot determine in advance whether the direct count or the statistically adjusted numbers are more accurate. "If the Census Bureau does not have confidence in the A.C.E. results, we will not use it," the director told subcommittee members. The Census Bureau director, not the Secretary of Commerce, he said, should make the adjustment decision. The director also vigorously challenged the assertion that statistical estimation could invite tampering with the numbers to achieve partisan advantage. He said the Census Bureau is "not competent" to design and implement an estimation plan that produces a partisan outcome. "Where is the evidence?" he asked, that the Bureau has a partisan agenda. Dr. Prewitt said it is "inconceivable" that the Census Bureau would know how statistical adjustments would affect the drawing of political district lines by 50 state legislatures. Other legislative news: Rep. Carolyn Maloney introduced legislation to provide funds for the Census Bureau to begin planning a census of American citizens living abroad in 2003. H.R. 4568 would authorize $5 million for planning a Census of Americans Abroad. Rep. Maloney introduced a bill (H.R. 3649) last year to require an interim count of Americans overseas in 2003 and planning to include this population in the 2010 census. Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) sponsored a similar bill (S. 1715) in 1999, which was referred to the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs. Census 2000 will include active members of the U.S. armed forces, civilian government employees, and their dependents, who are stationed or living overseas on Census Day (April 1, 2000), in the state population totals transmitted to the President for the purpose of congressional apportionment. These personnel and their family members are counted at their 'home of record,' the state in which they lived at the start of the their military or federal service. In a letter to Reps. Harold Rogers (R-KY) and Jose Serrano (D-NY), chairman and ranking minority member, respectively, of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State and The Judiciary, Rep. Maloney said the estimated three to six million American citizens living abroad "make enormous contributions to our economy" and "vote, pay taxes, and enjoy the same constitutional protections" as other Americans. She urged the subcommittee to include funds for planning an interim count in the Census Bureau's fiscal year 2001 appropriations bill. Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE) introduced a bill last month (H.R. 4458) that would limit the questions asked in future censuses to those included on the Census 2000 short form. The measure was referred to the House Committee on Government Reform. Update on Census 2000 operations: The Census Bureau announced last week that it has counted, either by mail or through a personal visit, about 92 percent of the nation's 118 million housing units. Director Ken Prewitt said gathering information from the remaining eight percent of American households posed the greatest challenge for the approximately 450,000 census enumerators working to complete 'nonresponse follow-up' operations by July 7. State legislative activities update: The New Jersey State Assembly yesterday approved a bill to require the use of unadjusted census numbers for redistricting purposes. The measure passed the Republican-controlled chamber on a party line vote of 42-34. On May 22, the State Government Committee approved A. 1682, sponsored by Assemblyman Michael Carroll (R), by a 3 - 2 vote along party lines. Assembly Speaker Jack Collins (R) initially scheduled a vote on the measure for May 25, but agreed to postpone action temporarily after Minority Leader Joseph Dorio Jr. (D) said legislators and the public needed more time to consider the bill's consequences. Last week, however, the Speaker announced that the Assembly would take up the bill on June 5. The State Senate has not yet considered the measure. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>om>. For copies of previous News Alerts and other information, use our web site www.census2000.org. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000 Initiative at <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.