Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 12:45:38 -0400 From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> Senate Committee Hears Dress Rehearsal Report From GAO House Members Fire First Salvos in Debate Over Census Funding In testimony yesterday before a Senate committee, the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) gave the 2000 Census Dress Rehearsal a mixed report card, citing some successes and some challenges that the Bureau must address before the actual count 18 months from now. Similarly, committee members were divided in their assessment of the Census Bureau's ability to take an accurate count using only conventional methods or supplementing those methods with scientific ones. GAO told members of the Committee on Governmental Affairs that staffing efforts and the pace of field operations were two early successes in the dry run. The Bureau had a lower-than-expected turnover rate among census takers and completed the door-to-door follow-up visits on or ahead of schedule in all three sites. GAO cautioned, however, that the successful recruitment and hiring in the dress rehearsal didn't mean that the Bureau had "licked the problem for 2000," given the magnitude of the actual census compared to the test run. GAO warned that the Bureau "still faces major obstacles to a cost-effective census." The congressional auditors cited the following as its primary concerns: incomplete address lists and maps, low (though not unexpected) mail response rates, glitches with new data capture equipment, and the limited success of partnerships with local governments and community-based organizations. GAO encouraged the Bureau to reconsider its decision not to send a second questionnaire to all households, noting that the replacement form had boosted mail response rates in the dry run by seven percent. Chairman Fred Thompson (R-TN) compared the status of census preparations to rail transportation, saying: "The train is on schedule but we're still not sure it's going to get there." The chairman also expressed concern that the use of sampling to supplement the direct counting effort put the census "in uncharted territory." He suggested that the Commerce Department's positive assessment of the dress rehearsal "did not square" with GAO's report of continuing problems. Senator John Glenn (D-OH), the panel's senior Democrat, asked the GAO if conventional methods had "exhausted the[ir] potential" to count the population accurately. GAO concurred, saying that (constitutional and legal questions aside) they still believed that sampling is an appropriate tool to improve accuracy. "On average," GAO said, the Bureau's 2000 census design would improve the accuracy of the population figures for areas as small as census tracts, which include about 4,000 people. The auditors emphasized that implementation of the scientific methods still presented "enormous challenges," but withheld judgment of those operations because they were ongoing in the dress rehearsal. Critics of sampling have claimed that the methods would make the census counts less accurate in all places with a population of less than 100,000. Census 2000 funding: The controversy over the proposed use of scientific methods in the census erupted with full force again as the House of Representatives took its initial step toward consideration of the Census Bureau's funding for Fiscal Year 1999 (FY99). On July 30, the House approved by voice vote the "rule" that governs the terms of debate for the Commerce, Justice, State and The Judiciary Appropriations bill. The rule grants two hours of debate, evenly divided between proponents and opponents, on an amendment to be offered by Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) which would lift the funding restriction on the 2000 census account. The bill (H.R. 4276) allocates $952 million for census preparations but only allows the Census Bureau to spend half of that amount until the dispute over the use of sampling is resolved next March. The House is expected to consider the Commerce appropriations bill early next week. During debate on the rule, critics of the Bureau's plan compared the proposed use of sampling to polling while supporters of the plan argued that conventional methods alone would miss millions of Americans again. Rep. Mollohan emphasized that the Bureau's plan had been reviewed and endorsed by three expert panels convened by the National Academy of Sciences. Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chair of the census oversight subcommittee, responded that the Academy was "not beyond politics and sadly, I think, they've been used." Rep. Miller also charged that Dr. Charles Schultze, who headed one of the Academy panels, was a "Democratic political operative." Dr. Schultze served in the Johnson and Carter Administrations and is a former chair of the Office of Management and Budget and the Council of Economic Advisors. Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY), who heads the Commerce funding subcommittee, said that he only opposed the use of sampling methods to produce the counts used for congressional reapportionment and redistricting and did not object to the use of data derived partially through scientific methods for the allocation of Federal program funds. Census Monitoring Board: The new Census Monitoring Board will meet on August 5 in Columbia, South Carolina, one of the three Census Dress Rehearsal sites, to continue its oversight of 2000 census preparations. The location, time and format of the meeting have not been announced. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 484-2270 or, by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>om>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to Keri Monihan at <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8728. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.