Elaine: Very helpful as always.the split seems close to a wash. I had
recalled a number of about 5% of auto users using transit on a given day -
roughly once a month -- from where? -- was it the npts pre-test? This
becomes a colossal component of transit use. I have argued that transit
agencies should pay more attention to the occasional user. they are a big
chunk of ridership just as are out-of-towners. the multi-day diary is a
must. AEP
----- Original Message -----
From: Elaine Murakami <Elaine.Murakami(a)igate.fhwa.dot.gov>
To: <ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net>et>; <Forinash.Christopher(a)epamail.epa.gov>
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 2:53 PM
Subject: RE: [CTPP] Reconciling Census Transit Commuters with
RidershipStatistics
Chris--
No survey is perfect but I wouldn't call the Census numbers "flawed." I
believe that what you are saying is that unlinked transit trips are a
different measure than worker flows from the Census questionnaire. In areas
with wide transit choices such as the Washington, DC region, it is important
for other data to be combined with Census data to check and verify results.
For example, regional household travel surveys, on-board transit surveys,
and park-and-ride surveys, are necessary to provide complete information
about daily travel behavior. Because the Census Long Form goes to 1 in 8
addresses (on average in urban areas), the high sampling rate and high
response rates result in data that is considered very high quality.
While the Census questionnaire limits people to choose only one mode to
work, and
asks for "usual mode last week," the mode differences occur in
both directions. People who usually drive alone may take the bus
occasionally, but also people who usually take transit to work may drive
alone or carpool to work.
The 1995 NPTS data show that over 20 percent of workers who say they
"usually" use transit either drove alone or carpooled on an assigned
travel
diary day. For workers who say they usually use a private vehicle to work,
0.3 percent say they used transit on an assigned travel diary day.
(
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/trvpatns.pdf, page 79 (p. 101 of the Acrobat
pdf file)
One story from the field collection of the 1995 NPTS was a woman who
called because
she was very upset that on her assigned travel day she had
driven to school and then drove to the airport to pick up a friend. Her
usual mode to school was by bicycle. She gave the telephone interviewer
what her actual behavior had been, although she could have told us her
"usual" commute and we would not have been the wiser.
Some of us count ourselves "lucky" that the Journey to Work Questions were
retained in the Census 2000, and are in the process of justifying the
inclusion of these questions in the American Community Survey. The Census
Bureau is recommending that the American Community Survey replace the Census
Long Form, so the Census 2000 Long Form is considered the "last one." There
have been suggestions to change the question on the Census surveys
(decennial long form and the ACS) to allow for multiple modes, and to allow
for different modes on different days, however, the chances of getting more
"real estate" on the questionnaire are "slim to none."
For capturing variability in daily travel behavior, I have been advocating
multi-day diaries, but adding response burden to surveys that already have a
low response rate is a difficult problem.
Elaine Murakami
Federal Highway Administration
>> Forinash.Christopher(a)epamail.epa.gov
07/08/02 09:30AM >>>
....So aren't the Census numbers ALWAYS going to be biased toward
the "dominant" mode (unless everyone does the same thing every single
day)? As others have posted, there are other reasons for disagreement
between Census travel trends and all other sources, but this is clearly
one.
....
Using these flawed Census numbers to argue for further depriving people
of
transportation choices is completely outdated thinking.
Chris.
------------------------------------
Christopher V. Forinash
U.S. EPA: Office of Policy, Economics and Innovation
1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW (MC 1808), Washington DC 20460
(Delivery: 401 M St. SW, #WT-1013D)
202-260-5044 vox 0174 fax; forinash.christopher(a)epa.gov
------------------------------------
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http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth
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