I also did comparisons of CTPP Part 1 vs. SF1 population for our region.
On a locality basis, the differences were +/-2 persons, as I was told to expect.
On a TAZ basis, the differences were greater. The differences ranged from +377 (3800 CTPP
vs 3423 SF1, or +11%) to - 443 (210 CTPP vs 653 SF1, or -68%). A scatter plot of TAZ
population from CTPP vs from SF1 resulted in an equation of [CTPP = 0.9998*SF1 + 0.6],
with an R-square of 0.9983.
I don't have a full understanding (as I guarantee few people do) of how the Census
takes sampled data and converts that to estimates of the full population, and why that
results in SF3 pop being different from SF1 pop. It would seem that they could be
consistent, even at smaller geography. It would certainly make life easier for the users
of the data. But given that they are not, this data (like all data) has its caveats, and
so we just need to use the data appropriately.
Andrew Pickard, P.E.
Senior Transportation Engineer
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission
723 Woodlake Drive
Chesapeake, VA 23320
Phone: (757) 420-8300 Fax: (757) 523-4881
E-mail: apickard(a)hrpdc.org
Web:
www.hrpdc.org
>> <ZhongzeWang(a)thempc.org> 09/08/03
02:18PM >>>
Hi all,
Our MPO is currently checking the newly-released 2000 CTPP data. We have
found some discrepancies between CTPP and other sources. According to
Census, "CTPP Part 1 data will not agree with SF 1 or Redistricting (Full count
data). The CTPP data are based on the census long form, and are subject to
weighting, just like other sample surveys. The SF1 and Redistricting data
are full counts, and are more accurate. The best source to do spot-checks
on the CTPP data is SF3".
Even keeping this in mind, we still found the comparision result alarming.
For the population data, we aggregated census block population from the
redistricting file into each TAZ, hoping the aggregation result is not
significantly different from the CTPP data. We have 602 TAZs in our area,
of which 511 have somebody living in them according to the redistricting
file. However, according to CTPP, only 474 TAZ have population. The
population in the 37 zones that CTPP ommited varies from 1 to 40, which we
were told are not significant.
We do have some zones that have significant differences in population (at
least we consider "significant"). We have a zone that has a population of
1277 in the redistricting file. The CTPP says that this zone has a
population of 455. The difference between these two data sources are 822.
We are not sure how to deal with this problem. Do any of the other MPOs
have the same kind of problems? We know we need to use the CTPP
information with care, but we assume that no matter what sampling method
and what weighting factors the Census is using, a difference of almost
200% is still too much.
We would like to pose this question to all of the CTPP users. If any of
you can give us a good explanation or how your agency is addressing the
data issue, please drop me a note so that we all learn from it. Thanks.
Sincerely
Zhongze (Wykoda) Wang
Associate Transportation Planner
Chatham County - Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission
P. O. Box 8246, 110 East State Street
Savannah, GA 31412-8246
Phone: (912) - 651-1452 Fax: (912) - 651- 1480
Email: wangz(a)thempc.org