Dear Fernando and All,
In population statistics, a person can only be counted once and
only once. Therefore, if a person lives in his/her usual (permanent)
residence but also owns a second home (vacation home), his/her second
home should be counted as vacant except it is rented out as permanent
(long term; such as one-year lease) residence for the renters.
Unless you have an annual updated formal report of the rental list
by number of residents, the IRS income tax report (or county-to-county
IRS migration flow) is the best administrative record for the estimates
of population change. The only shortcoming of the IRS report is that it
does not cover the illegal immigrants and those who either do not file
income tax report or who do file income tax report using address other
than the rental address.
Underestimated second home renters? Maybe. Overestimated?
Possible. The best solution is to have a census count (or canvass; or
administrative record) by well defined residence rule (a person can only
be counted once and only once).
Hope the difficult issue keep demographers alive.
Richard Lin, Ph.D.
Colorado Department of Local Affairs
Division of Local Government
1313 Sherman Street, Room 521
Denver, CO 80203
>> "Fernando DePaolis"
<FDePaolis(a)drcog.org> 6/7/2007 8:58 AM >>>
We have the same problem
in the mountain communities where there is a
large proportion of "second" homes, not necessarily for rent... it's
been quite frustrating but at some point we'll have a method to deal
with that... probably based on reports from local governments... the
main problem in forecasting those figures is the high volatility of
Our view is that "the Census" doesn't deal with the underlying cause
vacancy very well...
Fernando DePaolis, Ph.D.
DRCOG - Denver Regional Council of Governments
4500 Cherry Creek Dr South Suite 800
Denver CO 80246-1531
(303)480-6728 fdepaolis(a)drcog.org www.drcog.org
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[mailto:email@example.com] On Behalf Of Beaty, Daniel J
Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2007 2:50 PM
Subject: [CTPP] Census Data in High Vacation Rental Areas
I want to know if anyone else has had experience with Census
data seeming to under represent population and vacancy rates in areas
with high concentrations of vacation rental property that tends to be
seasonal in nature. I am working on a project that has this situation
and I'm would like to know if this is an anomaly or if others have
Daniel J. Beaty, AICP
Transportation Planning Program Manager
1901 Commonwealth Lane
Tallahassee, Florida 32303
Phone: 850.575.1800 Ext. 7914