Date: July 9, 1998 From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> Census Monitoring Board Reviews 2000 Plan Dress Rehearsal On Track, Commerce Department Says The Census Monitoring Board yesterday heard a detailed presentation from Acting Director James Holmes about how and why the Bureau developed its 2000 census plan. Mr. Holmes also discussed the progress of the Dress Rehearsal, which he called a "smashing success" so far from an operational standpoint. The Dress Rehearsal also was the subject of a press conference earlier in the day by Commerce Secretary William Daley and Mr. Holmes. In opening remarks by the Board co-chairs, Tony Coelho said that the panel should ensure that safeguards are in place to prevent political manipulation of the census. He also said that the Board should leave constitutional questions about sampling methods to the courts and any concerns about redistricting to the state legislatures, which are charged with drawing congressional districts. Kenneth Blackwell said he wanted to ensure an adequate flow of information from the Bureau to the Board and suggested that the panel should have "unimpeded access" to every part of the Bureau. Mr. Coelho observed that there should be a distinction between the level of access granted to panel members and to staff. He noted that the authorizing law granted broad access to Census Bureau information "subject to such regulations as the Board may prescribe in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce." The Board, created as part of this year's funding bill for the Census Bureau, listened to Mr. Holmes describe how concerns about the accuracy and cost the 1990 count led Congress and outside experts, as well as the Bureau, to search for ways to improve the process. The director called the Dress Rehearsal, still going on in three sites, a "classroom" where th e Bureau could identify remaining problems with its plan and make improvements. He reviewed key operational indicators available so far, including mail-back rates, recruitment and hiring efforts, telephone assistance, and the door-to-door visits (called "nonresponse follow-up). Mr. Holmes reported the following successes in Dress Rehearsal activities: * The Bureau met or slightly exceeded its target rates for mail response in all three sites. About 23,000 people had called the telephone questionnaire assistance (TQA) lines (through June 30). 96 percent of those calls sought help in English, while almost four percent requested Spanish-language assistance and less than one percent were for other languages. Less than five percent of the callers wanted to provide their responses by telephone, however. * Far more people who were offered census jobs accepted positions than the Bureau had estimated. * Turnover among temporary census enumerators was far lower than the Bureau had expected based on past experience. * The Bureau completed the door-to-door visits within the six-week period allotted in Sacramento and the Menominee Indian Reservation, and slightly faster than the allotted eight weeks in South Carolina, where the Bureau is testing a census without sampling methods. Mr. Holmes discussed problems identified in the Dress Rehearsal, including an incomplete address list, difficulty tracking all pages of the long form, and inaccurate maps. He also warned against complacency in recruiting efforts for 2000 and said it was too early to assess the quality of the data collected in the dry run. The post-census quality check survey, which will correct undercounts and overcounts in the initial tally (called "Integrated Coverage Measurement"), is continuing in Sacramento and Menominee. In South Carolina the Bureau is conducting a post-census survey that will measure accuracy but will not be used to adjust the final numbers. Board members asked a wide range of questions following the director's presentation. Mr. Blackwell expressed concern that the type of badges issued to Board members and staff did not allow them the fullest access to the Bureau. Mr. Holmes assured Board members that they would have full access to information but said there needed to be an orderly process to ensure efficiency in meeting requests. In response to another question from Mr. Blackwell, the director said the Bureau would be ready to take a census without sampling if Congress or the courts banned the use of those methods. Mr. Blackwell also asked for assurances that the Bureau would not remove people who had sent in their census forms from the count as part of the sampling process. In a June 26 guest editorial in The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Blackwell said it was "unconscionable" for the Bureau to subtract "real people" from the census in order to correct for duplicate counting. Mr. Holmes said that the planned statistical methods do not remove anyone who answered the census. Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chair of the House census oversight panel, has said he plans to introduce legislation to prevent the Bureau from subtracting "real people" from the count. Lorraine Green, a former deputy director of the federal Office of Personnel Management, expressed an interest in helping the Bureau meet its recruitment and hiring goals. David Murray said he was concerned about errors in the sampling process used to measure accuracy in 1990, citing testimony before the House census subcommittee on May 5 that statistical adjustments could make the census less accurate. Mr. Holmes said that interpretation was "one person's opinion" and noted that most other experts endorsed the Bureau's 2000 census plan. Mr. Coelho pointed out that Americans should be concerned about the accuracy of the count in their neighborhoods because if some people don't respond the entire community will receive less in terms of resources. Everitt Ehrlich, former Under Secretary of Commerce, expressed frustration with charges that the use of sampling was a "ruse" to achieve political benefit. He noted that the Bureau had only four political appointees in a workforce of 10,000, that research on the use of sampling in 2000 had started during the Bush Administration, and that former Secretary of Commerce Robert Mosbacher, a Bush appointee, had overruled experts at the Bureau who had recommended an adjustment of the 1990 census. Commerce Secretary Applauds Dress Rehearsal: At a National Press Club appearance on July 8, Commerce Secretary Daley warned Congress against delaying full funding for the Census Bureau next year. Referring to recent action in the House appropriations subcommittee that controls his Department's budget (see our June 26 News Alert), Mr. Daley said that Congress should separate funding from the dispute over sampling methods. Any interruption in funding, the Secretary said, could force the Bureau to lay off temporary workers developing the final address lists, delay contracts for data processing technology, and "put the entire census at risk." Rep. Miller issued a written statement in response to the Secretary's remarks, said "Sec. Daley's cheerleading is a little premature. The jury is still out on the 1998 dress rehearsals." In a separate statement, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), co-chair of the Census Caucus, renewed her call for a Census Subcommittee hearing on the dress rehearsals so that the public will not be "misled by inaccurate accounts of what is happening ... " Mr. Daley said the success of the Dress Rehearsal so far demonstrates "the superior management and operational expertise of the Census Bureau." The dry run "gives us tremendous confidence [that] our plan is solid, it is strong, and the people are there to implement it," he said. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 484-2270 or, by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>om>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to Keri Monihan at <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8728. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.