From: Census2000 <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> Census Bureau Unveils Revised Census Plan In Wake of Supreme Court Ruling Cost Estimate Not Finalized, But News Reports Suggest Sharply Steeper Price Tag Tomorrow: Reaction from Congress and Stakeholders At a press conference today in Washington, D.C., Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt unveiled a revised plan for Census 2000 that "is progressively more complete, more accurate." He called upon Congress to help the Bureau move forward with "a consensus census," saying that the Bureau "no longer [has] the luxury of debates about alternative designs, or substitute procedures." The plan would produce one set of state population totals based solely on traditional direct counting methods that will be used to apportion the 435 seats in Congress among the 50 states. The Bureau must report those state numbers to the President by December 31, 2000. The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled in a case challenging the Bureau's original plan that federal law prohibits the use of sampling to compile the population numbers used for apportionment. After counting "everyone it possibly can," Dr. Prewitt said, the Bureau would then conduct a quality check survey - named the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation, or ACE - to measure the accuracy of the initial count and provide the basis for correcting any undercounts and overcounts. The survey would cover 300,000 households nationwide, down from the 750,000 household post enumeration survey the Bureau proposed in its original plan. The corrected set of numbers, which Dr. Prewitt said will be more accurate than the direct count, will be available for geographic areas as small as census blocks by April 1, 2001, the legal deadline for the Bureau to transmit detailed counts to the state legislatures for the redistricting process. Director focuses on accuracy concerns: Despite an "operationally robust plan," the Census Bureau believes that the numbers produced for congressional apportionment "are not likely to be an improvement on the 1990 accuracy levels." Dr. Prewitt cited busy or transient lifestyles, irregular housing, language barriers, fear of government officials by immigrants, and decreased civic engagement as continuing and growing factors that make it harder to count accurately. "The Census Bureau has to work harder to stay in place," the director said. The Bureau also released more results from its 1998 dress rehearsal, showing higher undercount rates for racial minorities than for non-Hispanic Whites. Dr. Prewitt said the overall net undercount in the Columbia, S.C., area was 9.4 percent; for non-Hispanic Blacks, the rate was 13.4 percent, compared to 6.3 percent for non-Hispanic Whites. The Bureau used only traditional counting methods in the Columbia site, but conducted a quality-check survey to measure the accuracy of the results. In 2000, the redesigned quality-check survey (or ACE) will not estimate undercounts and overcounts for each state based only on the sample households within that state. Instead, information gleaned from the survey for various demographic subgroups will be "pooled" with data from other states in the same region. Dr. Prewitt said this design would produce "more robust" measurements of accuracy for smaller geographic areas, since data on less populous demographic subgroups in some states could be combined with data on the same subgroups from sample households in another state in the same region. In response to questions from journalists, Dr. Prewitt said the revised plan is "not a two-track design," but rather a census that relies on a range of methods "to produce more complete data." He noted that the Bureau has produced one set of numbers for apportionment and a second set for other purposes, including redistricting, in the past. In 1990, for example, military and federal civilian personnel, and their dependents, stationed overseas during the census were included in the state population totals used for congressional apportionment only, shifting a seat in Congress from Massachusetts to Washington. Their numbers were not included in any other census tabulations. Dr. Prewitt also referred to statements made in the past by House census subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) that suggested sampling could be used to produce different numbers for the allocation of federal aid. Dr. Prewitt said the Bureau is still working on a cost estimate for the new plan, which he said will cost much more than the Bureau's original plan. The cost increase, he noted, is attributable to the need to contact all households that don't respond by mail, instead of a sample of those households as originally planned. The Bureau estimates that 61 percent of the nation's 120 million households will respond voluntarily by mail. It cost $25 million to follow-up with each one percent of households that don't mail back their forms, Dr. Prewitt said. He also said that the ACE survey will account for a relatively small portion of census costs, disputing charges by some opponents of sampling that the quality-check procedure will drain resources from the traditional count. News articles today in The Washington Post and The New York Times quote unnamed sources familiar with the plan as saying it will cost $2 - $3 billion more than the original $4 billion price tag. Hearing on Commerce budget postponed: The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State, and The Judiciary has postponed a hearing originally scheduled for tomorrow, February 25, to review the Commerce Department's budget request for Fiscal Year 2000. Secretary Daley is likely to appear before the panel next week. Next week's planned appearance of Dr. Prewitt before the same subcommittee, to discuss the details of the Census Bureau's funding request, will likely be pushed back another week, as well. Oversight hearing scheduled: The House Subcommittee on the Census will hold a hearing on Tuesday, March 1, to review the status of census planning and preparations with Dr. Prewitt. The hearing will begin at 2:00 p.m. in room 2203 Rayburn House Office Building. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>om>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000 Initiative at <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.