Isn't another piece of the explanation that the Census doesn't actually measure trip-making as we typically define it? The Census mode-to-work question is an odd thing -- see http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/d02p.pdf questions 23a&b. The Census day was 4/1/2000, and it asks "how did this person usually get to work LAST WEEK?", and requires a one-mode answer (with "most distance" the criteria for choosing main mode). So for a number of individuals and families with whome I am anecdotally familiar, you don't count transit even if you use it quite a bit. If you walk to transit to and from work 2 days a week and drive the others, you don't report transit. If you carpool to a parking location and then take transit to your office every day, you don't report transit. If you drive from Loudoun County VA to the Vienna METRO to downtown Washington DC every day, you don't report transit. So aren't the Census numbers ALWAYS going to be biased toward the "dominant" mode (unless everyone does the same thing every single day)? As others have posted, there are other reasons for disagreement between Census travel trends and all other sources, but this is clearly one. Lots of people seek smart growth locations for home and work specifically to have access to transportation choices. That doesn't mean that every day, or even the majority of days, they won't drive. I ranted a bit about this a couple weeks ago in response to Ken Orski's flippant post to a thread started by Chuck Purvis. Using these flawed Census numbers to argue for further depriving people of transportation choices is completely outdated thinking. Chris. ------------------------------------ Christopher V. Forinash U.S. EPA: Office of Policy, Economics and Innovation 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW (MC 1808), Washington DC 20460 (Delivery: 401 M St. SW, #WT-1013D) 202-260-5044 vox 0174 fax; forinash.christopher(a)epa.gov ------------------------------------ Development, Community & Environment Division: http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth A partner in the Smart Growth Network: http://www.smartgrowth.org "Gardner, John F" To: 'Chuck Purvis' <CPurvis(a)mtc.ca.gov>ov>, ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net <GardnerJF(a)dot.s cc: tate.sc.us> Subject: RE: [CTPP] Reconciling Census Transit Commuters with Ridership St atistics Sent by: owner-ctpp-news@ chrispy.net 07/08/2002 08:14 AM Another explanation for the growth in total unlinked passenger trips, while total transit commuters remained stable, is the shift toward rail transit by many of the growing transit systems. In many cases, light rail replaced express bus service. The express bus collected people in their neighborhoods or at a park and ride lot and was a "one-seat" trip. Rail often involves a transfer from a feeder bus to the train, so a trip that formerly counted as one unlinked passenger trip now counts as two. A better measure would be "linked trips" (excludes transfers) when making this comparison, but I don't believe they are reported. John Gardner, AICP SCDOT Office of Planning PO Box 191 Columbia, SC 29202-0191 (803) 737 - 1444 gardnerjf(a)dot.state.sc.us -----Original Message----- From: Chuck Purvis [mailto:CPurvis@mtc.ca.gov] Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 6:36 PM To: ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net Subject: [CTPP] Reconciling Census Transit Commuters with Ridership Statistics To: CTPP-News One of the interesting journey-to-work results is the lack of change, at the NATIONAL level, in the total number of transit commuters. The US had 6,069,589 transit commuters according to the 1990 Census, and 6,067,703 transit commuters according to the 2000 Census, a 0.03 percent decrease. (On the other hand, the US transit commute SHARE declined from 5.3 percent in 1990 to 4.7 percent in 2000.) This compares to national transit ridership statistics which show a 6.4 percent increase in annual unlinked passenger trips comparing 1990 to 2000. (Source is APTA's 2002 Public Transportation Fact Book, Table 26.) The APTA book (I would assume based on FTA-collected ridership statistics) shows annual unlinked public transit trips increasing from 8,799 million trips in 1990 to 9,363 million trips in 2000 (the 2000 numbers are preliminary, according to the 2002 APTA Fact Book). So, an issue is how to reconcile a 0.0 percent change in national transit commuters with a 6.4 percent increase in national transit ridership. A plausible explanation is that the work trip share of public transportation trips has declined since 1990. According to the 1990 NPTS, 42.6 percent of public transportation person trips are for the purpose of "earning a living" (NPTS Databook, Vol. 1, Table 4.40). So, I can calculate that about 3,748 million unlinked transit boardings (in 1990) are "work trips" and that this might decline to about 3,747 million unlinked transit boarding "work trips", in 2000. This means that perhaps 40 percent of year 2000 transit boardings are work trips (3,747 / 9,363), which is quite plausible at the national level. The story might be that the national number of transit work trips, 1990 to 2000, has remained fairly stable, and that, at least at the national level, the growth in transit is attributable to non-work travel. The data question is: is information available from either the 1995 NPTS or the 2001 NHTS that can corroborate this possible trend - - a decline in the work purpose share for public transportation trips? Also, who has attempted to reconcile their change in regional transit commuters with their own transit ridership statistics? What would be most helpful is any comparisons of on-board surveys or household travel surveys that show any changes in the trip purpose mix for transit trips. (Other larger issues still loom in terms of the plausibility/fixability of the Census data. We are very concerned about the overall LOW numbers of TOTAL commuters and employed residents we're seeing in the 2000 Census in our region....) Wishing a Safe & Sane Happy Fourth of July to All! Chuck Purvis *********************************************** Charles L. Purvis, AICP Senior Transportation Planner/Analyst Metropolitan Transportation Commission 101 Eighth Street Oakland, CA 94607-4700 (510) 464-7731 (office) (510) 464-7848 (fax) www: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/ Census WWW: http://census.mtc.ca.gov/ ***********************************************