Census Bureau Releases Revised Census 2000 Accuracy Estimates; ACS Hearing Scheduled; Legislative and Budget Updates; Census Advisory Committee Meetings; and more. The Census Bureau has released place-level Census 2000 A.C.E. Revision II estimates on its Internet site, representing the second set of small area, unofficial population numbers produced from the post-census coverage measurement survey. Last fall, the Bureau publicly released block-level, statistically adjusted numbers under court order in a Freedom of Information Act case brought by two Oregon state legislators; those data were based on the Bureau’s initial review of the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation results. Census Bureau Director C. Louis Kincannon said last month that while the Revision II estimates “represent the most accurate assessment of Census 2000 coverage to date,” unresolved concerns about the coverage measurement and adjustment methodologies led him to reaffirm the agency’s prior decision not to use the A.C.E.-adjusted figures as a base for calculating population estimates throughout the decade. The adjusted data are available on the Census Bureau’s web site at http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/pp-60r.pdf. A discussion of technical issues related to the A.C.E. Revision II estimates is available at http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/ACETechAssess.pdf. Revised estimates of undercount and overcount by race and ethnicity are available at http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/pp-02r.pdf. (Also see the April 7, 2003, Census News Brief for a summary of the revised estimates of Census 2000 accuracy.) House Subcommittee to Review ACS Plans: The newly-created House Subcommittee on Technology, Information Policy, Intergovernmental Relations, and the Census will hold its first oversight hearing on the census, focusing on plans for the American Community Survey (ACS). The hearing is scheduled for Tuesday, May 13, at 10:00 a.m., in Room 2154 Rayburn House Office Building. The Government Reform committee panel, chaired by Rep. Adam Putnam (R-FL), has not released a witness list for the hearing. (See the April 7, 2003, Census News Brief for a full list of subcommittee members.) ACS Update and Clarification: The April 7 2003, Census News Brief reported that the Census Bureau is testing voluntary response in the American Community Survey in 31 test sites. The Bureau also is evaluating the effects of voluntary response in the Supplementary Survey, an annual national sample of 700,000 homes designed to assess ACS methodology and data quality. While most households in the current test surveys are being notified that their participation is voluntary, a small control group of homes continues to receive instructions that the law requires their response. The U.S. Department of House and Urban Development (HUD) has issued a report assessing the potential consequences for HUD programs of moving from census long form to ACS data. The American Community Survey: Challenges and Opportunities for HUD (September 27, 2002), prepared under contract by ORC Macro, identified 25 department activities that currently use long form data, including funding formulas for community development and Indian housing block grants, and federal housing ‘fair share’ allocations; eligibility determinations for low income housing tax credits and mortgage revenue bonds; monitoring and enforcement of fair housing laws; and Fair Market Rent calculations. The report concluded that the ACS “will benefit both HUD and its clients,” particularly because “more current data will improve all HUD activities” that rely on long form information, as well as “create opportunities” for new uses of ACS’ annually-updated estimates. Using ACS data in place of long form data, the authors found, “will create no problems for current HUD applications that HUD users will not be able to solve” in timely and technically acceptable ways. A third conclusion acknowledged that using ACS instead of long form data “will present challenges for some HUD applications” and require the department to “anticipat[e] problems and devis[e] solutions.” The report discusses thirteen issues that HUD will face related to the transition from census long form to ACS data, including treatment of group quarters, differences between point-in-time versus averaged estimates, less precise data due to the smaller ACS sample size, and phased-in availability of small area estimates. The authors suggest that using ACS data will require more HUD staff resources, to address technical and programmatic challenges associated with shifting to a new set of data and to take advantage of annually available data. The HUD report is available on-line at http://www.huduser.org/publications/polleg/acs.html. Budget update: The House and Senate reached agreement on a budget resolution (H.Con.Res. 95) for fiscal year 2004 (FY04), with both chambers adopting the conference report on April 11 along mostly party lines. The annual bill is Congress’ blueprint for federal spending; it does not become law or require the President’s signature. The final resolution provides $784.5 billion in total discretionary spending for FY04, a 2.4 percent increase over current year levels (excluding the recently passed supplemental appropriations bill covering primarily war-related activities). Of that amount, $400.1 billion would be allocated to defense programs, while $384.4 billion would be divided among all other discretionary federal activities. House and Senate negotiators were able to agree on overall spending limits after putting off a final decision on the amount of any future tax cuts that are a centerpiece of President Bush’s economic plan. The House and Senate Appropriations Committees will now allocate discretionary funds among the thirteen regular appropriations accounts. The Census Bureau is funded through the Commerce, Justice, State, and The Judiciary appropriations bill. Legislative Update – Census Bills Introduced: Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney (R-NY), former senior Democrat on the House census oversight subcommittee, has introduced three bills related to the Census Bureau and its programs. The measures were referred to the House Committee on Government Reform. H.R. 1541, with seven original Democratic cosponsors, would amend the Census Act (title 13, United States Code) to provide for “a just apportionment” of the U.S. House of Representatives. The bill would strike an exception related to congressional apportionment in a provision of the law encouraging the use of statistical sampling in censuses and surveys. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1999 that the exception in section 195 of the Census Act prohibited the use of statistical sampling methods to compile state population totals used to apportion seats in Congress among the 50 states (Department of Commerce v. U.S. House of Representatives, 525 U.S. 316). H.R. 1571 would set a five-year fixed term for the Director of the Census Bureau, and specify that the director would report directly to the Secretary of Commerce. Under current law, the director is appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate, and serves at the pleasure of the President. When a President leaves office, the director traditionally steps down to allow the new Administration to nominate its own candidate for the post, especially if the incoming President is from the opposing political party. Most federal statistical agency heads, such as the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, serve a fixed term of office (they can be re-nominated by the President). Section 21 of the Census Act also says that the census director “shall perform such duties … imposed …by law, regulations, or orders of the Secretary;” the Maloney bill would add a direct line of authority to the Commerce Secretary. Under the Department’s current organizational structure, the Census Bureau is part of the Economic and Statistics Administration, headed by an Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs. H.R. 1619, the “Census of Americans Abroad Act,” would mandate a test census by September 30, 2004, of Americans living abroad, and inclusion of federal personnel (including members of the armed forces) and private American citizens residing overseas in the 2010 and subsequent censuses. The Census Bureau already is planning to test the feasibility of counting private American citizens abroad and requested $2.5 million to conduct the test in Kuwait, France, and Mexico in FY04. The bill also would require the Commerce Secretary to recommend counting methods and the purposes for which the count of overseas Americans should be used, by June 30, 2005, and to conduct subsequent tests of overseas enumeration methods in 2006. Finally, H.R. 1619 instructs the Secretary to include Americans living abroad in the 2010 decennial census and to use those counts in ways the Secretary “considers feasible and appropriate.” In Census 2000, the Bureau counted members of the armed forces and civilian federal employees (and their dependents) stationed overseas on Census Day, using administrative records. The numbers were included only in state population totals used to reapportion the U.S. House of Representatives. The State of Utah unsuccessfully sued the Census Bureau after post-census analyses showed that the overseas counts cost Utah an additional seat in Congress; the seat went to North Carolina instead. Military and federal government personnel abroad also were counted for apportionment purposes in the 1990 census. Two original cosponsors signed on to H.R. 1619: Rep. Michael McNulty (D-NY) and Rep. Thomas Petri (R-WI). Both legislators served on the now-defunct Subcommittee on Census and Population (later renamed the Subcommittee on Census, Statistics, and Postal Personnel) in the early 1990s. Census Advisory Committees To Meet in May: The Census Bureau’s five Race and Ethnic Advisory Committees (REACs, which represent the African American, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Hispanic, and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander populations) will meet jointly on May 6 – 7, followed by a meeting of the Commerce Department’s Decennial Census Advisory Committee (DCAC) on May 8 – 9. The meetings will be held at the Sheraton Reston Hotel, 11810 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA (703-620-9000). The REACs will meet from 8:00 am – 5:30 pm on May 6, and from 8:00 am – 12:30 pm on May 7, when the five committees will meet in concurrent sessions and develop recommendations. The DCAC will meet from 8:30 am – 5:15 pm on May 8, and from 8:30 am – 12:00 pm on May 9. All proceedings are open to the public. The agendas for both meetings include general updates from Commerce Department and Census Bureau officials; discussion of plans to reengineer the 2010 census, which include replacing the traditional long form with the American Community Survey and administering a short form-only census; recent revisions to Census 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation estimates; and working group sessions on small populations, language, data quality, and race and ethnicity. Census News Briefs are prepared by Terri Ann Lowenthal, an independent consultant in Washington, DC. Please direct questions about the information in this News Brief to Ms. Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or by e-mail at terriann2k(a)aol.com. Thank you to the Communications Consortium Media Center for posting the News Briefs on the Census 2000 Initiative web site, at www.census2000.org. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.