Here's what I know about the MSA delineation process:
The final announcements are expected between mid-May and June 30.
The letters that went out last fall to Members of Congress were only on
issues in which local opinion was to be solicited--when it's solicited,
it's solicited through the congressional delegation--which usually pays no
attention to it. (The problem is exacerbated because the letter usually
arrive in the fall of year 2, when campaigns are in full force and
districts are changing.) People like us have to pay attention. However,
judging by the letters that went out in Michigan (I have copies of all of
them but had to get them through a senator's office), not much of interest
was up for local opinion. It was mainly questions of whether or not to
combine MSAs and, if so, what to name them.
I have had some conversations with the people in the Census Bureau who do
all the legwork for OMB. What was published several years ago was based on
1990 commuting. They didn't get the commuting data any earlier than we
did, and are working with the information now (that's why I think that
there are not two different files). They are working through all of the
counties to figure out what will go with what, but there is NO local
opinion solicited and no local option involved. The job is much bigger in
the past because they are making all those Micropolitan areas (10,000 to
50,000 urban clusters).
I think most people are going to be surprised when they see the final
Micropolitan lists, which you can anticipate by knowing the cities over
10,000 but there are more when urban clusters of 10K exist even when
they're not a single city. There's one coming in Allegan County, MI which
is a real surprise. Unless local opinon was solicited and provided (as we
did for Lenawee County, MI), many counties which used to be outlying or
ring counties in large metros are now going to be Micropolitan on their
own. Sometimes they'll then be combined (into Combined MSAs) but lots of
times they won't. This will reduce the size of some of the old CBSAs and
often the MSAs as well. E.g., Saginaw-Bay-Midland, formerly one MSA, will
now be two metros and a micro. I'm not sure whether it will be combined as
well. Same is true for Battle Creek-Kalamazoo and Grand
Rapids-Muskegon. This is going to turn a lot of rankings upside down.
OMB doesn't want to let anything out. We have no way, at least before the
areas are announced, of knowing what local opinion letters they
received. There are no hearings planned. These upcoming areas, under the
12/00 definition, are IT for this decade. Whether there will be any move
to change the definition for 2010 remains to be seen. I doubt that there's
much enthusiasm for it among the feds, because they did a great deal of
work in the 1990s to come up with the 12/00 definition.
Hope this helps.
At 10:08 AM 03/25/2003 -0800, you wrote:
TO: CTPP List-serv
I don't have much to contribute to this discussion, other than a news
clipping that Ed Christopher provided to me from our DC/Baltimore
colleagues (from the Baltimore Sun):
I do know that OMB was searching for local input on defining CMSAs and
MSAs, using early versions of the county-to-county Census 2000 commute
data. They, OMB, were conducting this local input process via local
congessional delegations. We basically got a fourth generation FAX from
one of our congresspersons asking us about the funding implications of
CMSA/MSA designations. I believe the initial round of input was closed (?)
on October 31, 2002.
Can some of our federal colleagues enlighten us on the OMB process? Future
hearings? Means to express our interest? Reviewing the comments received
from our congressional delegation?
Chuck Purvis, MTC
03/25/03 05:33AM >>>
Now that the county-to-county commuting data is out,
does anyone know when
the Census Bureau will announce the new MSA list? I read the Dec. 27,
2000, OMB Notice re: the MSA standards and it appears based upon the new
county-to-county data, Greene County will be included with Pitt County (the
central county) in the Greenville (NC) MSA.
First message on this subject from . . .
The new regulations for MSA definitions state basically that an outlying
county is included if at least 25 percent of the "employed residents" work
in the central county or counties (those counties with over 50 percent of
the population in the urbanized area). Obviously the county-to-county
commuting numbers provide the number of residents working in the central
counties. However the "employed residents" is less clear. Is it from the
same source (Apples and Apples) and thereby excluding those not at work
during the reference week, or is it taken from SF3 (Apples and Oranges) and
thus "total" resident employment? We have a county that is 25.03% by the
first method and 24.73% by the second. In or out?
Patricia C. (Patty) Becker 248/354-6520
APB Associates/SEMCC FAX 248/354-6645
28300 Franklin Road Home 248/355-2428
Southfield, MI 48034 pbecker(a)umich.edu