[CTPP] Reconciling Census Transit Commuters with Ridership Statistics

To: CTPP-News One of the interesting journey-to-work results is the lack of change, at the NATIONAL level, in the total number of transit commuters. The US had 6,069,589 transit commuters according to the 1990 Census, and 6,067,703 transit commuters according to the 2000 Census, a 0.03 percent decrease. (On the other hand, the US transit commute SHARE declined from 5.3 percent in 1990 to 4.7 percent in 2000.) This compares to national transit ridership statistics which show a 6.4 percent increase in annual unlinked passenger trips comparing 1990 to 2000. (Source is APTA's 2002 Public Transportation Fact Book, Table 26.) The APTA book (I would assume based on FTA-collected ridership statistics) shows annual unlinked public transit trips increasing from 8,799 million trips in 1990 to 9,363 million trips in 2000 (the 2000 numbers are preliminary, according to the 2002 APTA Fact Book). So, an issue is how to reconcile a 0.0 percent change in national transit commuters with a 6.4 percent increase in national transit ridership. A plausible explanation is that the work trip share of public transportation trips has declined since 1990. According to the 1990 NPTS, 42.6 percent of public transportation person trips are for the purpose of "earning a living" (NPTS Databook, Vol. 1, Table 4.40). So, I can calculate that about 3,748 million unlinked transit boardings (in 1990) are "work trips" and that this might decline to about 3,747 million unlinked transit boarding "work trips", in 2000. This means that perhaps 40 percent of year 2000 transit boardings are work trips (3,747 / 9,363), which is quite plausible at the national level. The story might be that the national number of transit work trips, 1990 to 2000, has remained fairly stable, and that, at least at the national level, the growth in transit is attributable to non-work travel. The data question is: is information available from either the 1995 NPTS or the 2001 NHTS that can corroborate this possible trend - - a decline in the work purpose share for public transportation trips? Also, who has attempted to reconcile their change in regional transit commuters with their own transit ridership statistics? What would be most helpful is any comparisons of on-board surveys or household travel surveys that show any changes in the trip purpose mix for transit trips. (Other larger issues still loom in terms of the plausibility/fixability of the Census data. We are very concerned about the overall LOW numbers of TOTAL commuters and employed residents we're seeing in the 2000 Census in our region....) Wishing a Safe & Sane Happy Fourth of July to All! Chuck Purvis *********************************************** Charles L. Purvis, AICP Senior Transportation Planner/Analyst Metropolitan Transportation Commission 101 Eighth Street Oakland, CA 94607-4700 (510) 464-7731 (office) (510) 464-7848 (fax) www: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/ Census WWW: http://census.mtc.ca.gov/ ***********************************************