Re: [CTPP] Census pop estimates

I just wanted to chime in with this discussion. In my region (Little Rock AR MSA) it’s clear that the city estimates are heavily driven by census county estimates. The estimates for the largest five cities in our central county all show 0.9% growth 2010-2011. This is absurd; these five cities varied in the 2000-2010 interval between outright decline in one case and 63 percent growth in another. The building permits and all other local evidence suggests that they are not all growing at 0.9 percent in unison.* *** ** ** Therefore I express my agreement that there’s something very wrong with the place/MCD estimates released on July 1. Since these estimates are fundamentally misleading, they are worse than nothing at all.**** ** ** Jonathan Lupton**** ** ** *From:* ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net] *On Behalf Of *wendell cox *Sent:* Monday, July 02, 2012 5:20 PM *To:* ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net *Subject:* Re: [CTPP] Census pop estimates**** ** ** That is a crucial question that needs to be answered.**** On Mon, Jul 2, 2012 at 9:54 PM, Patty Becker &lt;pbecker(a)umich.edu&gt; wrote:*** * Gee, I hope not. But it's very unclear what's going on. Loud protests might help. **** At 05:42 PM 7/2/2012, wendell cox wrote: **** Will this be their approach in future year estimates as well? Best regards Wendell Cox On Mon, Jul 2, 2012 at 9:13 PM, Patty Becker &lt;pbecker(a)umich.edu&gt; wrote:*** * The bottom line here is that the Census Bureau has abandoned its previous methods for calculating the subcounty estimates. For 2011, they basically carried the county % change in household population down to the sub-county units (MCDs and places), apparently holding the GQ pop count the same as the 2010 count (most of the time). **** In my personal view, coming from a strong MCD state, it would have been better if they had just not done 2011 estimates at all. **** Patty Becker **** At 08:57 AM 7/2/2012, Ed Christopher wrote: **** This is an interesting article Wendell Cox sent me from a friend of **** friend. We all remember when the Census Bureau changed from using **** county based estimates to using sub-county estimates in 2009 which are *** * then used to factor and weight the ACS. I had thought the process of **** going from a county to a sub-county was a little more sophisticated but ** ** maybe its not.**** http://www.urbanophile.com/2012/06/30/misreferencing-misoverestimated-popul… **** -- **** Ed Christopher**** 708-283-3534 (V)**** 708-574-8131 (cell)**** FHWA RC-TST-PLN**** 4749 Lincoln Mall Drive, Suite 600**** Matteson, IL 60443**** _______________________________________________**** ctpp-news mailing list**** ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net**** http://ryoko.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news**** ** ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- **** Patricia C. (Patty) Becker 248/354-6520**** APB Associates/SEMCC FAX 248/354-6645**** 28300 Franklin Road Home 248/355-2428**** Southfield, MI 48034 pbecker(a)umich.edu**** _______________________________________________**** ctpp-news mailing list**** ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net**** http://ryoko.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news**** -- -- Wendell Cox +1.618 632 8507 Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois MSA Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris Contributing Editor newgeography.com <http://www.newgeography.com/> www.demographia.com | www.publicpurpose.com | www.rentalcartours.net BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS War on the Dream demographia.com/wod1.pdf<http://www.demographia.com/wod1.pdf> International Housing Affordability Survey demographia.com/dhi.pdf<http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf> The Wal-Mart Revolution (with Richard Vedder) Demographia World Urban Areas demographia.com/worldua.pdf<http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf> _______________________________________________ ctpp-news mailing list ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net http://ryoko.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news **** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Patricia C. (Patty) Becker 248/354-6520 APB Associates/SEMCC FAX 248/354-6645 28300 Franklin Road Home 248/355-2428 Southfield, MI 48034 pbecker(a)umich.edu**** _______________________________________________ ctpp-news mailing list ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net http://ryoko.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news**** **** ** ** -- -- Wendell Cox +1.618 632 8507 Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois MSA*** * Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris Contributing Editor newgeography.com <http://www.newgeography.com/>**** www.demographia.com | www.publicpurpose.com | www.rentalcartours.net BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS *War on the Dream *demographia.com/wod1.pdf<http://www.demographia.com/wod1.pdf> **** *International Housing Affordability Survey *demographia.com/dhi.pdf<http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf> *The Wal-Mart Revolution *(with Richard Vedder)**** *Demographia World Urban Areas *demographia.com/worldua.pdf<http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf> **** ** ** _______________________________________________ ctpp-news mailing list ctpp-news(a)ryoko.chrispy.net http://ryoko.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news