Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 12:45:38 -0400
From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org>
Senate Committee Hears Dress Rehearsal Report From GAO
House Members Fire First Salvos in Debate Over Census
Funding
In testimony yesterday before a Senate committee, the U.S.
General Accounting Office (GAO) gave the 2000 Census Dress
Rehearsal a mixed report card, citing some successes and
some challenges that the Bureau must address before the
actual count 18 months from now. Similarly, committee
members were divided in their assessment of the Census
Bureau's ability to take an accurate count using only
conventional methods or supplementing those methods with
scientific ones.
GAO told members of the Committee on Governmental Affairs
that staffing efforts and the pace of field operations were
two early successes in the dry run. The Bureau had a
lower-than-expected turnover rate among census takers and
completed the door-to-door follow-up visits on or ahead of
schedule in all three sites. GAO cautioned, however, that
the successful recruitment and hiring in the dress rehearsal
didn't mean that the Bureau had "licked the problem for
2000," given the magnitude of the actual census compared to
the test run.
GAO warned that the Bureau "still faces major obstacles to a
cost-effective census." The congressional auditors cited
the following as its primary concerns: incomplete address
lists and maps, low (though not unexpected) mail response
rates, glitches with new data capture equipment, and the
limited success of partnerships with local governments and
community-based organizations. GAO encouraged the Bureau to
reconsider its decision not to send a second questionnaire
to all households, noting that the replacement form had
boosted mail response rates in the dry run by seven percent.
Chairman Fred Thompson (R-TN) compared the status of census
preparations to rail transportation, saying: "The train is
on schedule but we're still not sure it's going to get
there." The chairman also expressed concern that the use
of sampling to supplement the direct counting effort put the
census "in uncharted territory." He suggested that the
Commerce Department's positive assessment of the dress
rehearsal "did not square" with GAO's report of continuing
problems.
Senator John Glenn (D-OH), the panel's senior Democrat,
asked the GAO if conventional methods had "exhausted the[ir]
potential" to count the population accurately. GAO
concurred, saying that (constitutional and legal questions
aside) they still believed that sampling is an appropriate
tool to improve accuracy. "On average," GAO said, the
Bureau's 2000 census design would improve the accuracy of
the population figures for areas as small as census tracts,
which include about 4,000 people. The auditors emphasized
that implementation of the scientific methods still
presented "enormous challenges," but withheld judgment of
those operations because they were ongoing in the dress
rehearsal. Critics of sampling have claimed that the methods
would make the census counts less accurate in all places
with a population of less than 100,000.
Census 2000 funding: The controversy over the proposed use
of scientific methods in the census erupted with full force
again as the House of Representatives took its initial step
toward consideration of the Census Bureau's funding for
Fiscal Year 1999 (FY99). On July 30, the House approved by
voice vote the "rule" that governs the terms of debate for
the Commerce, Justice, State and The Judiciary
Appropriations bill. The rule grants two hours of debate,
evenly divided between proponents and opponents, on an
amendment to be offered by Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) which
would lift the funding restriction on the 2000 census
account. The bill (H.R. 4276) allocates $952 million for
census preparations but only allows the Census Bureau to
spend half of that amount until the dispute over the use of
sampling is resolved next March. The House is expected to
consider the Commerce appropriations bill early next week.
During debate on the rule, critics of the Bureau's plan
compared the proposed use of sampling to polling while
supporters of the plan argued that conventional methods
alone would miss millions of Americans again. Rep. Mollohan
emphasized that the Bureau's plan had been reviewed and
endorsed by three expert panels convened by the National
Academy of Sciences. Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chair of the
census oversight subcommittee, responded that the Academy
was "not beyond politics and sadly, I think, they've been
used." Rep. Miller also charged that Dr. Charles Schultze,
who headed one of the Academy panels, was a "Democratic
political operative." Dr. Schultze served in the Johnson
and Carter Administrations and is a former chair of the
Office of Management and Budget and the Council of Economic
Advisors.
Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY), who heads the Commerce funding
subcommittee, said that he only opposed the use of sampling
methods to produce the counts used for congressional
reapportionment and redistricting and did not object to the
use of data derived partially through scientific methods for
the allocation of Federal program funds.
Census Monitoring Board: The new Census Monitoring Board
will meet on August 5 in Columbia, South Carolina, one of
the three Census Dress Rehearsal sites, to continue its
oversight of 2000 census preparations. The location, time
and format of the meeting have not been announced.
Questions about the information contained in this News Alert
may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 484-2270 or,
by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please direct all
requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in
address/phone/fax/e-mail, to Keri Monihan at
<kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8728. Please feel free to
circulate this information to colleagues and other
interested individuals.
Those who are diehard readers of the electronic version of
our newsletter "ctpp status report" may recall a reference
to a special report on the TAZ update program that was in
the snail-mail version. That report is now up on our web
site. Here is the direct link to it.
http://www.mcs.com/~berwyned/census/newsltr/taz0698.html
Date: Tue, 21 Jul 1998
From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org>
Senate Begins Debate on Census Funding; House Action
Expected Later in the Week
Bill Introduced to Add Internet Questions to Census Long
Form
The Senate is set to begin consideration of the Census
Bureau's funding bill for the next fiscal year. The measure
approved by the Appropriations Committee (S. 2260) allocates
$848 million for 2000 census work but the Senate so far has
avoided the controversy over the use of scientific methods
which will likely dominate debate when the House takes up
the Fiscal Year 1999 Commerce, Justice, State, and The
Judiciary Appropriations bill.
The House Rules Committee will set the terms for floor
debate on Wednesday; the House is expected to begin
consideration of its spending bill on Thursday. In a July
16 written statement, Secretary of Commerce William Daley
said that the six-month funding limit on 2000 census work
approved by the House Appropriations Committee "would put
the success of the Census 2000, whatever the design used, in
serious jeopardy." He warned that the initial allocation of
only $476 million would force the Census Bureau to suspend
census preparations in late January 1999. The consequences
include delays in completing address list development,
opening local census offices, hiring and training local
staff, and awarding contracts for questionnaire printing and
data processing equipment, according to the Secretary's
statement. To receive the remainder of the year's funds,
Secretary Daley said, the Bureau "would be forced to agree
to a plan it does not endorse."
Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), senior Democrat on the Commerce
appropriations subcommittee, will ask the Rules panel to let
him offer an amendment to remove the funding cap when the
House takes up the Commerce spending bill. The Mollohan
amendment, which was defeated in a party-line vote in
committee on July 15, also requires the Bureau to continue
planning for two different censuses -- one that uses
scientific methods and one that doesn't - until the Supreme
Court rules on legal challenges to the constitutionality and
legality of sampling. In a July 15 letter to Appropriations
Committee Chairman Bob Livingston (R-LA), Office of
Management and Budget head Jacob Lew said that the
President's senior advisers would recommend a veto of the
Commerce spending bill if it includes the restrictions on
full funding for 2000 census activities.
Hispanic legislators weigh-in: The Congressional Hispanic
Caucus plans a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday,
July 22, at the House Triangle, to call for unrestricted
full funding for the 2000 census. Rep. Xavier Becerra
(D-CA), chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said
last week that Hispanic legislators would "hold this
Congress hostage" if congressional leaders refused to drop
the six-month funding cap for the 2000 census. "[W]e're not
going to let all these folks that deserve to be counted be
held hostage by this Congress because the Congress is
unwilling to provide the dollars to fund the census
properly," Becerra said after a meeting with Vice President
Albert Gore to discuss efforts to ensure an accurate count.
Census Bureau evaluations showed that the 1990 count missed
almost five percent of Hispanic Americans.
Census 'Long Form' Legislation: Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL),
chairman of the House census subcommittee, and Rep. Rick
White (R-WA) introduced a bill (H.R. 4270) on July 17 to
require the addition of two questions on the census long
form. The new questions would ask if the household has a
personal computer and if the household is connected to the
Internet. In a written statement, Chairman Miller said that
"it is appropriate that we use the 2000 census to get a
handle on just how widespread home computers and Internet
access have become." H.R. 4270 was referred to the House
Committee on Government Reform and Oversight; no hearings
have been scheduled yet.
In March 1997, the Census Bureau submitted to Congress the
subject matters of questions it plans to ask in the 2000
census. The Bureau only included the collection of data
that is required to implement a federal law or program. The
2000 census schedule calls for awarding a contract for
questionnaire printing by the end of this year; printing
must begin in April 1999.
Upcoming briefing: The National Council of Women's
Organizations is sponsoring a briefing, "Down for the Count?
How the Census Affects Women and Families." The event will
be on July 24, 10:00 - 11:00 a.m., in room 2203 Rayburn
House Office Building, Washington, D.C. Please call Pat
Reuss or Elsa Fan, at 202/544-4470, for further information
(RSVP not required).
Stakeholder activities: The Census 2000 Initiative and the
Leadership Conference Education Fund hosted an educational
briefing for reporters at the National Press Club on July
20. Three census experts talked about the best ways to
ensure an accurate census and answered questions about the
use of scientific methods to supplement direct counting
efforts. The panelists were Dr. Eugene Ericksen, Temple
University, co-chair of the Special Advisory Panel that
advised the Secretary of Commerce on adjustment of the 1990
census; Dr. Robert Hill, Morgan State University, noted
author of books on the black family and a member of the
Census Bureau's Advisory Committee on the African American
Population; and Dr. Lynne Billard, University of Georgia,
former President of the American Statistical Association who
created a blue ribbon panel in 1996 to examine the use of
sampling methods to improve census accuracy and contain
costs.
Secretary of Commerce William Daley plans to discuss the
2000 census plan in a speech to the National Conference of
State Legislatures in Las Vegas on July 22. NCSL is a
member of the Secretary's 2000 Census Advisory Committee.
Helpful reading: The U.S. General Accounting Office has
issued a report on the history of key policy issues
affecting the census. The report, "Decennial Census:
Overview of Historical Census Issues" (GAO/GGD-98-103, May
1998) can be ordered by calling 202/512-6000 or writing to
GAO at P.O. Box 37050, Washington, D.C. 20013. GAO's web
site is <http://www.gao.gov>.
Administrative Note: We would like to apologize to those of
you who receive our News Alerts by fax. Due to a technical
glitch, multiple copies of the latest News Alert were sent
out. We regret any inconvenience.
Questions about the information contained in this News Alert
may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 484-2270 or,
by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please direct all
requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in
address/phone/fax/e-mail, to Keri Monihan at
<kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8728. Please feel free to
circulate this information to colleagues and other
interested individuals.
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********** C E N S U S 2 0 0 0 B U L L E T I N
**********
Vol. 2 - No. 36 July 17,
1998
Commerce Secretary William M. Daley issued the following
statement on Thursday, July 16, in response to recent action
on the Clinton Administration's FY 1999 budget request for
the Census Bureau by the U.S. House of Representatives'
Appropriations Committee:
House Appropriations Limits Funding -- Census 2000 in
Jeopardy
Washington, D.C. - Yesterday, the House Appropriations
Committee took action on what I consider to be one of the
most important activities of this nation and the cornerstone
of our democracy -- the decennial census. The committee
agreed to limit the Census Bureau's funding to half of the
FY 1999 appropriation, with the stipulation that the second
half would be withheld until Congress enacts legislation
directing how the 2000 Census is to be conducted. Without
the certainty of full funding, Census 2000 is at serious
risk. The Census Bureau is at a critical point and must have
all the resources necessary to conduct the best possible
census ever. The Administration remains and will continue to
remain committed to a census that is accurate,
cost-effective, and fair and accounts for everyone,
regardless of race, economic condition, or geographic
location. The American people deserve no less.
Census 2000 in Jeopardy
On Wednesday, July 15, the House Appropriations Committee
agreed to limit the Census Bureau's funding to half the
appropriation with the stipulation that the second half
would be withheld until Congress enacts legislation
directing how the 2000 Census is to be conducted. A floor
vote on this proposal is pending. This plan would put the
success of the Census 2000, whatever the design used, in
serious jeopardy.
Why Full Funding for FY 1999 is So Critical
Bottom line, the Census Bureau needs the assurance of full
funding to continue preparing and finalizing plans for our
nation's next head count. The Census is the nation's largest
peacetime mobilization effort requiring years of preparation
and work ahead of time. If funding is limited, the Bureau
would have to suspend its operations in late January, when
the first half of the year's funds will have been spent.
That would overturn the entire schedule for Census 2000. In
order to receive the second half of funding in March, 1999,
the Bureau in essence would be forced to agree to a plan it
does not endorse, a plan that will lead to a census that is
more costly and less accurate.
Effects for Census 2000
Specifically, delays and uncertainties in funding will force
the Bureau to delay opening local census offices as well as
hiring and training staff to operate these offices. In
addition, limited funding will force the Bureau to lay off
thousands of workers checking the master address list and
delaying the entire address list operation. Having an
accurate and up-to-date address
list is a critical component towards achieving an accurate
count. Limited funding will also force the Bureau to delay
contracts to print the questionnaires and purchase the data
capture systems that will take in information from census
forms as well as delay other contracts for the advertising
and promotion efforts -- critical towards increasing the
response rates of Americans mailing back their forms.
The Census is Important to Every American
Census numbers are used by states to draw Congressional
districts, as well as the districts for state and local
offices. In addition, billions of dollars in federal funding
are granted to states and localities every year based on
census numbers. Census data are also critical to city,
county, and state planners in determining such things as
where to build a road, school, library, or hospital. It is
critical that we accurately and fairly account for each and
every American. Any delay in funding now would seriously
undermine the Bureau's ability to achieve this goal.
For more information, contact Mary Hanley at 202-482-4883 or
Karen Cowles at 202-482-1523.
Date: July 16, 1998
From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org>
Congressional Appropriations Activity:
Update and Correction
In recent weeks, Congress has moved rapidly to consider
funding for the final year of census preparations, as well
as policy decisions affecting the accuracy, conduct, and
scope of the 2000 count. The Senate and House
Appropriations Committees have approved their respective
versions of the Fiscal Year 1999 Commerce, Justice, State,
and The Judiciary spending bills, which provide funding from
October 1, 1998 through September 30, 1999. Both chambers
are likely to take up the measures before Congress heads
home for the August recess; negotiations to resolve
differences between the two bills, as well as disagreements
with the Administration, will likely intensify after Labor
Day.
Following is additional information related to the actions
so far, as well as a correction of information included in
yesterday's News Alert:
House of Representatives: The House Appropriations Committee
approved its Commerce spending bill yesterday. We
incorrectly reported that the committee approved an
amendment sponsored by Rep. Carrie Meek (D-FL) that would
allow the recipients of Federal benefits to work in
temporary census jobs without counting the income earned in
determining their eligibility for benefits or reducing the
amount of the benefits. Rep. Meek agreed to withdraw her
amendment so that legislators could further review cost and
operational issues, including whether Congress can make
changes in program eligibility requirements determined by
the states.
We apologize for the error.
The committee did approve a catch-all amendment offered by
subcommittee Chairman Harold Rogers (R-KY) affecting various
parts of the spending bill. That amendment includes a
provision calling for greater targeting of paid
advertisements during the 2000 census to ensure effective
outreach to minority communities.
The amendment offered by Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) to remove
restrictions on full-year funding for 2000 census
preparations drew the most heated debate. Rep. Rogers
argued that the committee was simply carrying out an
agreement reached last fall between the President and House
Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) to provide only six months of
funding for the 2000 census, forcing the parties to resolve
the controversy over sampling methods early next year. Rep.
Mollohan disputed that description of last year's agreement
and said that the six-month funding scheme would put the
entire census at risk of failure. Rep. David Obey (D-WI),
the committee's senior Democrat who opposes sampling
methods, said he supported Rep. Mollohan's amendment because
any interruption in funding could jeopardize the accuracy of
any census, regardless of the methods used.
Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL) said that Congress, not the National
Academy of
Sciences, is responsible for the census and should make the
decision on how to conduct it. He was referring to a
provision in the Mollohan amendment directing the National
Academy of Sciences to review the status of census
preparations and report to Congress by March 31. Rep. Rosa
DeLauro (D-CT) responded by saying that Congress directed
NASA to put a man on the moon but didn't design the
spaceship. The committee defeated the Mollohan amendment on
a strictly party-line vote of 22 - 31. The report that
accompanies the spending bill, which often sheds more light
on the committee's concerns and intent, is not yet
available.
Senate: The Senate Appropriations Committee approved its
version of the Commerce spending bill on June 25. The
measure allocates $848.5 million in FY99 for 2000 census
activities, the amount requested by the President. The bill
also directs the Commerce Department to provide quarterly
reports on the status of census preparations.
In the report accompanying the bill, the committee said it
had "grave concerns" about plans for the 2000 census and
that the census was "at risk of failure" if improvements
aren't made. The report raises concerns about the accuracy
of address lists and development of software to detect
duplicate forms, noting that the new software was not tested
in the Dress Rehearsal taking place in three sites around
the country. The Senate committee did not directly address
the controversy over sampling methods except to note
concerns about the reliability of cost estimates to prepare
for a census without sampling.
The Senate panel also weighed in on the question of
including Americans living overseas in the census, although
no hearings have been held on the issue. In its report, the
committee directed the Census Bureau to work with the State
Department to count Americans living abroad in the census.
With two exceptions, the census has only included people
living in the United States on Census Day.
In 1970, with tens of thousands of soldiers fighting in
Vietnam, the Bureau tallied military personnel stationed
overseas for the purposes of the state population totals
used for apportionment. In 1990, at the urging of Congress,
the Bureau included all military and federal civilian
employees and their dependents stationed abroad during the
census in the state counts, assigning them to their "home of
record" (the place of enlistment for members of the armed
forces). The increased population counts caused a
congressional seat to shift from Massachusetts to
Washington, but the Supreme Court rejected a challenge from
Massachusetts, saying that the Census Bureau had the
authority to include government employees working abroad.
The task of including overseas personnel in the 1990 census
was not an easy one. Congress, the Bureau, the Defense
Department, and the Office of Personnel Management struggled
for months to select the fairest criteria for assigning
people not living here to a particular state. Many Federal
agencies, including Defense, also found that their personnel
records did not always include information on an employee's
home state.
Questions about the information contained in this News Alert
may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 484-2270 or,
by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please direct all
requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in
address/phone/fax/e-mail, to Keri Monihan at
<kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8728. Please feel free to
circulate this information to colleagues and other
interested individuals.
Date: July 15, 1998
From: Joy Garner <jgarner(a)ccmc.org>
House Appropriators Stick with Six-Month Funding For Census,
Reject Amendment to Keep Funds Flowing Past March
Bill Also Aims to Boost Census Employment Opportunities
Among Recipients of Federal Benefits
In a 22 - 31 party-line vote, the House Appropriations
Committee today rejected an amendment offered by Rep. Alan
Mollohan (D-WV) that would provide uninterrupted funding for
2000 census activities in fiscal year 1999 (FY99). The
committee approved the FY99 Commerce, Justice, State and The
Judiciary spending bill with language adopted by the
subcommittee on June 24 that only funds 2000 census work
through March 31, 1999.
Subcommittee Chairman Harold Rogers (R-KY) said the
six-month funding provisions represented a deal reached last
fall between the White House and congressional Republican
leaders. The Administration disputes that characterization
of the unwritten agreement, saying that the parties had
agreed to fund the entire Commerce, Justice, State and The
Judiciary bill only for the first half of FY99, in order to
put pressure on both sides to resolve the sampling dispute
early next year.
The committee-approved bill allocates $952 million for 2000
census activities, about $104 million more than the
President had requested. The extra funds must be used to
continue preparing for a census that doesn't use sampling
methods to count the population. However, only one-half of
the funds would be made available initially, to pay for
census preparations through March 31, 1999. The Commerce
Department said that $476 million would fund 2000 census
work only through mid-January.
The second half of the allocation would not be made
available until the President requests release of the funds
and Congress enacts a new bill authorizing the Bureau to
spend the remaining $476 million. The language directs
Congress to act by March 31 but does not spell out any
consequences if Congress and the Administration fail to
reach an agreement on releasing the rest of the money. The
bill also provides $4 million for the Census Monitoring
Board.
Rep. Mollohan offered an amendment to remove the
restrictions on the full $952 million allocation. The
amendment would have allowed the Bureau to continue planning
for a census that includes sampling unless the Supreme Court
rules that the methods are unconstitutional or unlawful. It
also would have required continued planning for a census
without statistical methods until the Supreme Court disposed
of the two pending legal challenges to the use of sampling
in the census. The Mollohan amendment directed the National
Academy of Sciences to determine whether the Bureau's 2000
census plan was the most feasible way to produce an accurate
count of the population. Critical work to finish compiling
the address list (called the Master Address File) starts
this summer and continues through 1999. The Bureau also
plans to award a contract for questionnaire printing by the
end of this year; the contractor must begin work in April to
ensure that census forms are ready to be mailed by mid-March
of 2000. The full House is tentatively scheduled to take up
the Commerce spending bill next week. Rep. Mollohan, the
senior Democrat on the appropriations subcommittee that
funds the Census Bureau, noted that the President has
indicated he will veto the funding bill if the final version
still contains the six-month restriction.
Recruitment and hiring also addressed by appropriators: The
committee adopted a provision sponsored by Rep. Carrie Meek
(D-FL) that would allow the recipients of Federal benefits
to work as temporary census employees without counting that
income in determining their eligibility for those programs.
The Meek language was included in a larger amendment offered
by Rep. Rogers and accepted by voice vote without
discussion. Rep. Meek also criticized the advertising
campaign being developed by the New York-based firm of Young
& Rubicam, saying it was not effective in reaching minority
communities. The report that accompanies the appropriations
bill may incorporate Rep. Meek's concerns.
Controversy over deleting "real people" from the census
continues: Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chairman of the House
census subcommittee and a member of the appropriations
panel, did not, as some observers expected, offer an
amendment in today's committee mark-up to prohibit the
Census Bureau from subtracting "real people" from the
census. Rep. Miller said last week that he plans to
introduce such a bill, which his oversight panel could
consider without scheduling a hearing to review the issue.
The chairman said he does not want the Bureau to throw out
forms with data collected from "real people" as part of the
plan to eliminate overcounts in the census through the
750,000 household quality-check survey. The Bureau has said
that it does not discount any questionnaires collected from
actual people except to eliminate duplicates or clearly
fraudulent forms.
Questions about the information contained in this News Alert
may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 484-2270 or,
by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please direct all
requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in
address/phone/fax/e-mail, to Keri Monihan at
<kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8728. Please feel free to
circulate this information to colleagues and other
interested individuals.
Date: July 9, 1998
From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org>
Census Monitoring Board Reviews 2000 Plan
Dress Rehearsal On Track, Commerce Department Says
The Census Monitoring Board yesterday heard a detailed
presentation from Acting Director James Holmes about how and
why the Bureau developed its 2000 census plan. Mr. Holmes
also discussed the progress of the Dress Rehearsal, which he
called a "smashing success" so far from an operational
standpoint. The Dress Rehearsal also was the subject of a
press conference earlier in the day by Commerce Secretary
William Daley and Mr. Holmes.
In opening remarks by the Board co-chairs, Tony Coelho said
that the panel should ensure that safeguards are in place to
prevent political manipulation of the census. He also said
that the Board should leave constitutional questions about
sampling methods to the courts and any concerns about
redistricting to the state legislatures, which are charged
with drawing congressional districts. Kenneth Blackwell
said he wanted to ensure an adequate flow of information
from the Bureau to the Board and suggested that the panel
should have "unimpeded access" to every part of the Bureau.
Mr. Coelho observed that there should be a distinction
between the level of access granted to panel members and to
staff. He noted that the authorizing law granted broad
access to Census Bureau information "subject to such
regulations as the Board may prescribe in consultation with
the Secretary of Commerce."
The Board, created as part of this year's funding bill for
the Census Bureau, listened to Mr. Holmes describe how
concerns about the accuracy and cost the 1990 count led
Congress and outside experts, as well as the Bureau, to
search for ways to improve the process. The director called
the Dress Rehearsal, still going on in three sites, a
"classroom" where th e Bureau could identify remaining
problems with its plan and make improvements. He reviewed
key operational indicators available so far, including
mail-back rates, recruitment and hiring efforts, telephone
assistance, and the door-to-door visits (called "nonresponse
follow-up). Mr. Holmes reported the following successes in
Dress Rehearsal activities:
* The Bureau met or slightly exceeded its target rates
for mail response in all three sites. About 23,000 people
had called the telephone questionnaire assistance (TQA)
lines (through June 30). 96 percent of those calls sought
help in English, while almost four percent requested
Spanish-language assistance and less than one percent were
for other languages. Less than five percent of the callers
wanted to provide their responses by telephone, however.
* Far more people who were offered census jobs
accepted positions than the Bureau had estimated.
* Turnover among temporary census enumerators was far
lower than the Bureau had expected based on past experience.
* The Bureau completed the door-to-door visits within
the six-week period allotted in Sacramento and the Menominee
Indian Reservation, and slightly faster than the allotted
eight weeks in South Carolina, where the Bureau is testing a
census without sampling methods.
Mr. Holmes discussed problems identified in the Dress
Rehearsal, including an incomplete address list, difficulty
tracking all pages of the long form, and inaccurate maps.
He also warned against complacency in recruiting efforts for
2000 and said it was too early to assess the quality of the
data collected in the dry run. The post-census quality
check survey, which will correct undercounts and overcounts
in the initial tally (called "Integrated Coverage
Measurement"), is continuing in Sacramento and Menominee.
In South Carolina the Bureau is conducting a post-census
survey that will measure accuracy but will not be used to
adjust the final numbers.
Board members asked a wide range of questions following the
director's presentation. Mr. Blackwell expressed concern
that the type of badges issued to Board members and staff
did not allow them the fullest access to the Bureau. Mr.
Holmes assured Board members that they would have full
access to information but said there needed to be an orderly
process to ensure efficiency in meeting requests. In
response to another question from Mr. Blackwell, the
director said the Bureau would be ready to take a census
without sampling if Congress or the courts banned the use of
those methods. Mr. Blackwell also asked for assurances that
the Bureau would not remove people who had sent in their
census forms from the count as part of the sampling
process. In a June 26 guest editorial in The Wall Street
Journal, Mr. Blackwell said it was "unconscionable" for the
Bureau to subtract "real people" from the census in order to
correct for duplicate counting. Mr. Holmes said that the
planned statistical methods do not remove anyone who
answered the census. Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chair of the
House census oversight panel, has said he plans to introduce
legislation to prevent the Bureau from subtracting "real
people" from the count.
Lorraine Green, a former deputy director of the federal
Office of Personnel Management, expressed an interest in
helping the Bureau meet its recruitment and hiring goals.
David Murray said he was concerned about errors in the
sampling process used to measure accuracy in 1990, citing
testimony before the House census subcommittee on May 5 that
statistical adjustments could make the census less
accurate. Mr. Holmes said that interpretation was "one
person's opinion" and noted that most other experts endorsed
the Bureau's 2000 census plan. Mr. Coelho pointed out that
Americans should be concerned about the accuracy of the
count in their neighborhoods because if some people don't
respond the entire community will receive less in terms of
resources.
Everitt Ehrlich, former Under Secretary of Commerce,
expressed frustration with charges that the use of sampling
was a "ruse" to achieve political benefit. He noted that
the Bureau had only four political appointees in a workforce
of 10,000, that research on the use of sampling in 2000 had
started during the Bush Administration, and that former
Secretary of Commerce Robert Mosbacher, a Bush appointee,
had overruled experts at the Bureau who had recommended an
adjustment of the 1990 census.
Commerce Secretary Applauds Dress Rehearsal: At a National
Press Club appearance on July 8, Commerce Secretary Daley
warned Congress against delaying full funding for the Census
Bureau next year. Referring to recent action in the House
appropriations subcommittee that controls his Department's
budget (see our June 26 News Alert), Mr. Daley said that
Congress should separate funding from the dispute over
sampling methods. Any interruption in funding, the Secretary
said, could force the Bureau to lay off temporary workers
developing the final address lists, delay contracts for data
processing technology, and "put the entire census at risk."
Rep. Miller issued a written statement in response to the
Secretary's remarks, said "Sec. Daley's cheerleading is a
little premature. The jury is still out on the 1998 dress
rehearsals." In a separate statement, Rep. Carolyn Maloney
(D-NY), co-chair of the Census Caucus, renewed her call for
a Census Subcommittee hearing on the dress rehearsals so
that the public will not be "misled by inaccurate accounts
of what is happening ... "
Mr. Daley said the success of the Dress Rehearsal so far
demonstrates "the superior management and operational
expertise of the Census Bureau." The dry run "gives us
tremendous confidence [that] our plan is solid, it is
strong, and the people are there to implement it," he said.
Questions about the information contained in this News Alert
may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 484-2270 or,
by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please direct all
requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in
address/phone/fax/e-mail, to Keri Monihan at
<kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8728. Please feel free to
circulate this information to colleagues and other
interested individuals.
Dear Urban Mobility Professional,
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