ACS did not include group quarters in 2005, but did add them in
2006 and 2007. The 3-year period estimates for 2005-07 include them too
(adjusting the weighting to account for their absence in the 2005 data).
I can’t speak for the methodology used by the California Dept.
of Finance, but if it is similar to that used by its Washington State counterpart,
the administrative data it uses to estimate current population will be
different from that used by Census, and can account for a difference in the
outcome. (Remember that both agencies are making estimates based on
indirect information). Calif Dept of Finance may be using employment
records (employees covered by unemployment insurance, which excludes the
self-employed), school enrollments, motor vehicle registrations, births,
deaths, etc.; while Census has access to births, deaths, employment records, and
Social Security records. Typically, the figures from Census do not align
with those from the Washington Office of Financial Management, though they are
usually in the ballpark.
All such agencies benchmark their annual population estimates to
the decennial census once those figures come out. Typically they will
revise their intercensal estimates back to the previous census, but maybe only
for the county totals. Census also will do this, but only for the county
totals, not for the ACS figures. You could apply the ACS percentages
(e.g., percent age 15-64 in the workforce) to the Calif Dept of Finance totals
if you felt those were more reliable totals. ACS is intended to be a
source of data on characteristics, not necessarily on total numbers –
that’s the job of the decennial census, and of intercensal and postcensal
totals.
Pete Swensson, Senior Planner
Thurston Regional Planning Council
2424 Heritage Ct. SW
Olympia, WA 98502
(360) 741-2530 (direct line)
(360) 956-7575 (main desk)
(360) 956-7815 (fax)
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From:
ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On
Behalf Of Mike Harmon
Sent: Thursday, June 25, 2009 3:40 PM
To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
Subject: RE: [CTPP] ACS 2005-2007 Population Estimates
You should remember that the ACS estimates include the household
population only, whereas the DOF numbers include people in group quarters,
which makes the State numbers higher.
From:
ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On
Behalf Of wendell cox
Sent: Thursday, June 25, 2009 2:54 PM
To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
Cc: JPLevin@oaklandnet.com
Subject: Re: [CTPP] ACS 2005-2007 Population Estimates
Do not know the issue you are
raising, however, Calif Dept of Finance estimates are high on municipal
populations of SF and LA... by a large margin... this is in comparison to the
annual Census Bureau estimates (which may or may not be related to ACS).
On Thu, Jun 25, 2009 at 9:28 PM, Shimon Israel <SIsrael@mtc.ca.gov> wrote:
For ACS 2005-2007 population and housing occupancy/vacancy
estimates, are people finding discrepancies between ACS and other data sources,
particularly in sub-county geographies? ACS estimates are controlled at
the county level and, like the ACS 1-year data, ACS 2005-2007 population
estimates are showing disagreement with other data sources. For example,
the Oakland 3-year ACS estimate shows the population at 372,000, when CA Dept.
of Finance estimates are over 400,000. This runs counter to the on-the-ground
anecdotal experience - ACS shows a loss of 30,000 people during a period that
showed an increase of 10,000 housing units.
Will the decennial census correct this? My understanding is that Census
2010 numbers will be used to control 2010 ACS characteristic data. There
will need to be some adjustment, however, given that the decennial census
benchmarks population at April 1, and ACS uses a July 1 population number.
It's also my understanding that population estimates for 2001-2009 will
be updated, though retroactive adjustments for ACS characteristics will not be
done. Does anyone else know something different about this?
Other thoughts about this?
Thanks,
Shimon
---------------------------------------------------------------
Shimon Israel
Associate Transportation Planner/Analyst
Metropolitan Transportation Commission
101 Eighth Street
Oakland, CA 94607-4700
(510) 817-5839 (office)
(510) 817-5848 (fax)
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Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois
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Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris
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