John, et. all,
I've been a quiet subscriber of the list for a few
months now and had some Chicago data that might be useful for comparison
purposes. While I have been primarily engaged in CTA market research for
the last 14+ years, my job here is now changing so that Census related issues
are much more important and so I'll probably be contributing from time to time -
more often with questions than with data I'm afraid.
1) It is not necessarily the case that
the share of Transit Dependant Riders has grown in every market - in Chicago,
our best source of data indicates that CTA's share of Transit Dependent
Customers has fallen from 49% in 1997, to 32% in 2000, that is, 68% of CTA
customers can now be considered choice customers (Source: CTA
Technical Report MR01-09, Traveler Behavior and Attitudes Survey, CTA Riders and
Non-Riders, July, 2001. Note: this was an RDD telephone travel survey
of 2,768 residents (Riders and non-riders) in the CTA Service Area the fourth in
a series conducted in 1988, 1990, 1993 and 2000).
2) We have seen
a change in the mix of frequent (5+days per week) vs. infrequent (1-4 days per
week) customers among our regular customers. From 1997 - 2002 the
share of Infrequent Customers grew from 42% to 49% of those who rode at
least once per week (Source: Technical Report MR-02-05, 2001 CTA Customer
Satisfaction Survey, April 2002. Note: those who rode CTA less than once a
week were not included in this sample. N= 2,505, Stratified RDD biennial
telephone survey.)
3) I believe that a mix of factors including
an improved automated fare system which allows many more fare options(including
better counting and tracking of fare types), customer satisfaction focused
service improvements, service improvements (rail line improvements, limited stop
express bus services and employer based bus services) and transit marketing
programs (New Residents Program, Transit Benefits Program, UPASS) designed to
replace customers lost to turnover and develop new riding habits, are
responsible for reversing decades of ridership loss and causing substantial
ridership growth between 1997 and 2001 (8.5%). A "good chunk" of this
growth has been in off-peak discretionary riding and/or riding by occasional
customers.
a) Note that CTA's adoption of
its Transit Card automated fare system resulted in many beneficial impacts too
many to insert here - the share of uncounted customers has certainly improved as
have revenues - many more types of fares can be offered and validated by the
system (relieving the operator of the need to do so in many cases - much better
tracking of fare card usage by type - especially for daily, weekly or monthly
passes is now available - customers accept the accuracy of electronically time
stamped transfers and argue less with operators - and most importantly - pass
users of many kinds now make more discretionary off-peak trips for other
purposes resulting in an increase in infrequent choice customers on our
system.
b) The implementation of the CTA
Smart Card - coming soon - should have additional
benefits.
4) The census is a very valuable source of data -
but does have weaknesses when used for transit planning. In addition to
points made by others:
a) By being taken only once
every 10 years (as prescribed by law) interim trends of growth and loss are
not observed. How tragic it would be if CTA (and other agencies like it), after
finally reversing the trend of decades of ridership loss would lose some % of
capital funding eligibility over the next decade that would have allow it to
continue to grow and rebuild its market share.
b) The census records
activity on one non-random day, April 1, rather than a number of days throughout
the seasons of a year. Transit riding patterns and habits are influenced
by very local phenomena - weather conditions, traffic developments, local
economic fluctuations, etc., which can impact mode choice decisions in the
week before the census.
c) It seems to me that these
weaknesses, and other weaknesses that those more expert on Census Data than
I could provide, suggest that better, more frequent national sampling of travel
data and household auto/transit mode shares are needed than can be provided by
the census. Whether the cost of doing so nationwide, with sample sizes
large enough that data that would be useful on regional and local levels is
worth the benefits is arguable. Clearly I would favor such a
project. In saying this I am not attempting to put down the Census - just
point out that it may be that there may be a need to push for other more
frequent data sources using sampling methods rather than a full count and the
long/short form.
5) Responding to Ed Christopher's point,
our TBAS surveys referenced above indicate that while the share of
trips to or from work in the CTA service area made by
non-CTA Customers has been relatively stable from 1990 (40%) to 2000 (39%),
work trips grew significantly among Frequent CTA Customers (44% in 1990 to 55%
in 2001) and Infrequent CTA Customers (29% in 1990 to 39% in 2000, 2000 Nw=5,769
trips). (Note that a PDF file of this report is available on
request.) This suggests growth among work Trip use over the decade by
Transit Customers but no change for the general population. Note also that
results for CTA are likely to be very different than for non-urban systems, only
8% of households in our service area say they have never used
CTA.)
I hope that this information is helpful.
Please contact me if you would like a copy of our TBAS report.
Coordinator
Market Research/Resource Planning
Strategic Planning Department
Planning
Division
Chicago Transit Authority
120 N. Racine Avenue
Chicago, IL
60607
(312) 733-7000 x 6840 (Voice)
(312) 432 - 7108
(Fax)
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Unless
otherwise stated, the views expressed are those of the author and not
those
of the Chicago Transit
Authority.
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http://www.TransitChicago.com
CTA CUSTOMER SERVICE
HOTLINE
1-888-YOUR-CTA
RTA Travel Information
836-7000
-----
Original Message -----
From: "Gardner, John F"
<GardnerJF@dot.state.sc.us>
To: <ctpp-news@chrispy.net>
Sent:
Monday, July 08, 2002 1:58 PM
Subject: RE: [CTPP] Reconciling Census Transit
Commuters with Ridership Statistics
> Additional possible reasons
for the APTA/FTA reported growth in total
> ridership vs. unchanged census
count of transit commuters:
>
> 1) Because transit is losing
mode share, one assumes the remaining users
> are more transit dependent
than in 1990 and therefore more likely to use
> transit for ALL trips, not
just work trips.
>
> 2) Aging of the population results in
long-term riders continuing to ride,
> but no longer making work trips
(retired).
>
> 3) ADA accessibility requirements have made
transit more accessible to
> disabled persons, whose riding pattern may
include a smaller than average
> proportion of work trips.
>
> 4) Most transit systems now use electronic fareboxes that improve
passenger
> count reliability; fewer systems had these in 1990. Some
undercounting of
> passengers may have occurred previously -- drivers had
to punch mechanical
> counters, or even less reliable methods were
used. Some of the reported
> growth in total ridership may result
from more accurate passenger counts.
>
>
> -----Original
Message-----
> From: ed christopher [mailto:edc@berwyned.com]
>
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 1:33 PM
> Cc: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
>
Subject: Re: [CTPP] Reconciling Census Transit Commuters with Ridership
>
Statistics
>
>
> As for Chucks comments I believe that he
was actually searching to gain a
> better understanding into the trip
purpose side of mode
> split issue. Is the the work trip declining
in its mode share? The answer
> of course in not in any census
data.
>