Mr. Hutton - land use forecasts are likely more in the realm of spreadsheets and general GIS programs than specific software for it.  Probably quite a few folks on this list could send you one of their spreadsheets, but they may all be different and it might be as much work to tinker with them for your needs than just starting from scratch.  (Some public and private agencies also do county-level forecasts if you're not already aware of them.)

Mr. Srinivasan - hey, great sense of humor on the Do Not Call thing!

Sam Granato
Ohio DOT, Office of Technical Services
1980 W. Broad Street, Columbus, OH  43223
Phone:  614-644-6796, Fax:  614-752-8646
"Things are more like they are now than they've ever been before." - Howard Maple



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Today's Topics:

  1. Population Projections & Socio-economic Data (HuttonD@thempc.org)
  2. National Personal Travel Survey (NPTS) -- Add-On Costs
     (Srinivasan, Nanda)


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Message: 1
Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 15:37:33 -0400
From: HuttonD@thempc.org
Subject: [CTPP] Population Projections & Socio-economic Data
To: ctpp-news maillist <ctpp-news@chrispy.net>
Message-ID:
                <OF609396C3.3636451C-ON8525703D.006A3FFD-8525703D.006BCF05@Thempc.org>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"

We are an small MPO (250,000 population) and are interested in locating a
software program to help us with population projections and socio-economic
data on a TAZ level. The feature we are looking for is the ability to
adjust the long range projections based on annual growth. Does anybody
have any suggestions?

Dennis Hutton
Metropolitan Planning Commission
110 East State St.
P.O. Box 8246
Savannah, GA. 31412-8246
912-651-1450
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Message: 2
Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 10:11:33 -0400
From: "Srinivasan, Nanda" <Nanda.Srinivasan@fhwa.dot.gov>
Subject: [CTPP] National Personal Travel Survey (NPTS) -- Add-On Costs
To: <ctpp-news@chrispy.net>
Message-ID:
                <29C4CA30630DDF448F49BF88EA8E7767013025C0@fhxhq2.fhwa1.fhwa.dot.gov>
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All-
In the past week, we have received several e-mails expressing interest in the NPTS Add-On program. Many of you have asked us for a cost estimate. Because the next NPTS has not been designed, nor has contractor(s) selection been made, we cannot quote a price for add-on samples. However, we can give you some "guesses." Here is a list of common questions we've received so far, along with answers from Susan Liss (FHWA), and the rest of the NPTS team.
1. What did it cost in the past?

For the 2001 survey, the cost of an Add-on sample was $165 per completed household.

2. When will we know more about costs?

FHWA has let a Request For Information (RFI) to get projected costs for the next survey (using the 2001 survey content and approach as a strawman). The RFI was let on 6/24 and responses are due on 7/24. We expect to contact RFI responders during the month of August to work out questions and suggestions. We plan to have a much better estimate of survey costs by Labor Day.

The Request for Information, posted at:
<http://www2.eps.gov/spg/DOT/FHWA>

Go to Office of Acquisition Management, Washington DC, click on Posted Dates, then click on Previous Days, then go to June 24th and click on "Request for Information for Costs of Conducting the NPTS 01".


3. Why would the costs change from the 2001 survey?

>From my experience with the NPTS series, the response rate is the big driver of costs. Much of the survey resources are devoted to recruiting households and keeping them involved in the survey through completion. Since we conduct a telephone survey, we are hopeful that the Do Not Call List (which does not apply to research surveys) has made the public more amenable to participating in a telephone survey since they are not being deluged with telemarketer calls.

4. For planning purposes, what number should I use now?

I would use $175 per completed household. BUT, recognize this is my best guess-timate. It is not an actual cost estimate.

5. Is it possible that the costs will be less than the $165 per household that the add-ons paid in the 2001 survey?

Yes, it is possible. One of the reasons we let the Request For Information was to see if we could offer the add-on samples at a lower cost.

6. What if the next NPTS has different content and methods than the survey described in the Request for Information?

We will need to bear that in mind and make appropriate adjustments as we plan the next survey. However, we also plan to have enough Add-ons so that a survey very similar to the 2001 could be conducted for you, based on the cost estimates we receive from the RFI. There is certain core content to a household travel survey that will not change.

7. Is there a minimum sample size?

In the three survey years that add-ons have been conducted (1990, 1995 and 2001), we have suggested that a minimum sample of 1000 households be conducted for an add-on jurisdiction.

8. How can I calculate the appropriate sample size for my jurisdiction?

Appropriate sample size depends on the size of your area, the questions you want answered by the survey and the degree of statistical validity you need. Nancy McGuckin of the NPTS Team can help you get a better idea of an appropriate sample size.

Once the survey research firm(s) have been selected for the next NPTS, their sampling statisticians can work with you on sample size and other sample needs. (No, they don't try to sell you more samples--- my experience has been that they are annoyingly scientific about the process.)

9. How can I give my input for the next NPTS survey?

There are several ways -
. Respond to the RFI (see above) - comments and input on all aspects of the next NPTS are being solicited, in addition to the cost estimates

. Visit to the Community of Practice website for NPTS, where we are establishing a communications channel with our potential add-ons, other data users and other survey stakeholders. Go to <http://knowledge.fhwa.dot.gov/cops/hcx.nsf/home> Scroll to the bottom, and click on "Household Travel Data Program"

. Call or email one of the NPTS Team members

NPTS Team

Susan Liss, Project Manager, 202-366-5060, susan.liss@fhwa.dot.gov

Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst, 202-366-8750 nancy.mcguckin@fhwa.dot.gov (works on NPTS Tues, Wed afternoon & Thurs.)

Nanda Srinivasan, Travel Data Analyst, User Support & GIS, 202-366-5021 nanda.srinivasan@fhwa.dot.gov (yes, this is the same Nanda Srinivasan that also works on CTPP)

Yuki Nakamoto, SAS Programmer, 202-366-6958 yuki.nakamoto@fhwa.dot.gov (works on NPTS on Tues & Thurs)
Thank you for your interest in the NPTS Add-on Program. Those of us on the NPTS Team believe the Add-on component is a useful, tested, comprehensive way of obtaining a household travel dataset for your area.



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