As well as the fact that there are several groups interested in anti-poverty programs here, and it would be nice to know with some certainty whether the problem is getting better or worse, by how much and where.

 

Frank

 

From: ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Murakami, Elaine
Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 3:46 PM
To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
Subject: RE: [CTPP] CTPP Update

 

One of the reasons that income and poverty data from ACS is important and why we, as planners not specifically transportation planners, should be interested in getting high quality, consistent data is because HUD is planning to use the ACS data in their Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) and HOME Investment Partnership Program eligibility and funding distributions.

 

Nathan Erlbaum (NY State DOT) shared the text below from the Census State Data Center (SDC) listserv, so I hope it is  OK to share with the CTPP listserv.

 

HUD to Use ACS Data to Set HOME, CDBG Eligibility in FY 2011

HUD officials say they will begin calculating Community Development Block Grant and HOME Investment Partnership Program eligibility and funding using American Community Survey data for fiscal year 2011.

The ACS is used by the Census Bureau as a way to fill in gaps between the 10-year population census data normally used by HUD to determine program eligibility, funding allocation and targeted program activities.

With factors such as population and area median household income for neighborhoods among the various factors HUD considers, the ACS data is seen as a way to prevent the occasional massive changes local public housing agencies can face during a given 10-year period. Instead, the intent to use ACS is to make the change more gradual and consistent, thereby ensuring better use of federal dollars.

Urban counties and some small entitlement jurisdictions in CDBG & HOME have their current data built from block groups under the current system. The necessary five-year average data for those groups in the ACS model likely won't be available until mid-2010, he says. The first data HUD will use in the ACS model, therefore, will cover the years 2006-2010, Todd Richardson, HUD director program evaluation, tells CDD.

The new ACS also will require changes to the Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) that local programs have been required since 1990 as part of housing planning for CDBG and HOME. The data helps HUD determine different characteristics of a given community and was altered in 2000 following that census. New CHAS computer tables using ACS data will be required. "We hope to have those available in line with the start of using ACS," Richardson says.

One issue that remains to be determined is how HUD will define eligibility areas as low- and moderate-income. Currently, HUD puts out block group files that take a relatively small sample -- smaller than a census tract, Richardson says -- and uses the demographics in those to determine whether a given area is eligible. But the margin of error in using such small samples is high, he says, so HUD is considering putting several block groups together to gain a larger data sample such as a census tract that can provide the department with greater confidence in whether a given area is eligible for HOME and CDBG entitlement funds.

Richardson says HUD will be unable to make use of census tract data until fiscal year 2011, since it won't have the necessary ACS data until then. "We have not made a decision on whether to stick with the block group or raise the geography to census tract level," he says. "That's still a discussion we're having." -- Thomas Harman

06/02/2008 4:49 PM

     

 

 

 


From: ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Alan Pisarski
Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 12:43 PM
To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
Cc: 'Arlee Reno'
Subject: RE: [CTPP] CTPP Update

 

I agree with Steve.  If you look today at consumer expenditures data the income stuff is rather useless for the lower income quintile.  Those young and old spend more than their incomes. I always use the spending data rather than incomes for my work.  For modeling the income issue will be critical. 

 

Alan E. Pisarski

6501 Waterway Drive

Falls Church Va. 22044

703 941-4257

alanpisarski@alanpisarski.com


From: ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Polzin, Steve
Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 3:37 PM
To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
Subject: RE: [CTPP] CTPP Update

 

In some ways the quality and meaning of income data is destined to get cloudier over time as more folks join the ranks of the retired.  Spending will be a combination of spending income and drawing down assets - particularly as more folks are not privy to defined benefit retirement plans.  In addition the necessity of saving from income (versus having an employer do it for you) may impact the actual discretionary share of income for working folks.  Add all the part time employment, self employed etc. and we will likely struggle to find as much meaning in the income data.   

 

Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D.

Center for Urban Transportation Research

University of South Florida

4202 Fowler Ave., CUT100

Tampa, FL  33620-5375

813-974-9849 (w)

813-416-7517 (c)

polzin@cutr.usf.edu  

http://www.cutr.usf.edu

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Frank Lenk
Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 3:04 PM
To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net
Subject: RE: [CTPP] CTPP Update

 

I made this comment to Elaine off-line, and she suggested I post it to

the entire group for reaction.

 

The more I read about asking people for their incomes the prior 12

months, the more I worry about it being accurate, or at least inaccurate

in a consistent way so that trends can be trusted. I certainly couldn't

tell you my last 12 months of income without some figuring -  the

minimum calculation would appear to be what was my salary last year,

what is it this year, how may months was I paid in one versus the other

and applying the appropriate weighting factors.  And this doesn't count

differences in my non-salary income, which might come at very irregular

intervals.

 

If this last-12-month approach does produce inaccurate estimates (say

people either report what they earned last year or what they are earning

this year, but not a weighted average), then applying an inflation

factor based on the month seems wholly inappropriate to me when we don't

really know which period they are using to estimate their income.

 

Maybe it all averages out and I shouldn't worry. But I'd rather they ask

what the income was on my last tax return. This is something I've had to

spend significant time calculating beforehand and can at least go look

up.  Seems like this would produce a more stable, precise estimate, even

though it wouldn't accurately reflect the my income over the last 12

months.

 

The difficulty in establishing what is trend vs what is error (or

difference from 2000 long-form) using ACS is for me the most vexing part

of learning how to use it. Here, poverty rates jumped up 50% since 2000

in some (but not all) counties.  Admittedly, it's been a relatively bad

decade for us economically in KC (employment didn't surpass its 2001

pre-recession peak until the last half of 2006). But I am having trouble

figuring out just how bad because I am uncertain how to interpret the

ACS income results.

 

Any help will be appreciated.

 

Frank

 

Frank Lenk

Director of Research Services

Mid-America Regional Council

600 Broadway, Suite 200

Kansas City, MO 64105

www.marc.org

816.474.4240

flenk@marc.org

816.701.8237

 

 

 

 

-----Original Message-----

From: ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net

[mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Murakami, Elaine

Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 1:43 PM

To: ctpp-news@chrispy.net

Subject: RE: [CTPP] CTPP Update

 

Re:  poverty and Income comparisons between Census 2000 Long Form and

ACS:

The only report I am familiar with is:

http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/Report05.pdf

Pages 34-37 discuss county-level comparisons.  These are comparisons

between the Census 2000 Long Form (aka sample) and the ACS "C2SS", and

18 of the test ACS counties.  They found that the C2SS results

consistently had lower incomes than the Census 2000 sample, and

therefore, a higher poverty ratio.   They found that income allocation

occurs 30 percent in the Census 2000 sample, and 24% in the C2SS.   

 

I do not know if the Census Bureau has pursued other research on how ACS

respondents answer the income questions.

 

Elaine

 

-----Original Message-----

From: ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net

[mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Ed Christopher

Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 9:50 AM

To: ctpp-news maillist

Subject: [CTPP] CTPP Update

 

On May 21 and June 4 members of the CTPP team conducted a series of

webinars to help bring our community up-to-speed on several of the CTPP

activities.  The slides from these presentations can be downloaded from

our webinar room at http://fhwa.acrobat.com/ctpp1 (enter as a guest) and

the responses to many of the questions asked during the meetings are

presented below.  If folks have additional questions please feel free to

post them to the list serve and someone on the CTPP team will attempt to

answer them.

 

CTPP Webinar - Questions and Answers

 

Question: Will the 3-year CTPP data product based on ACS include tables

by race and household income?

Response:  Yes but the best source for information on race will still be

the Census Bureau's standard ACS tabulations found on American

FactFinder (http://factfinder.census.gov/).  The 3-year CTPP proposed

tables for parts 1 and 2 include a few tables with the variable

"minority status." Also, there are various tables with the variables -

Income, Poverty Status and Worker Earnings that will be available.

Please note that Poverty Status is a calculated variable based on

household income, family size, number of children and number of family

members over the age of 65.

 

Question: Since the new CTPP products will be based on data collected

over 3 years (or 5 years), to which year will the income be adjusted?

Response:  Income will be adjusted to the last year of the survey

period.   For the first 3-year product all incomes will adjusted to

2007.

 

Question: Is there data available on zero car households? If yes, what

geography level is it available?

Response:  Yes, there will be information available for zero car

households in both the 3-year CTPP data product and as part of the

standard Census products.  The data will be available for geographic

areas greater than 20,000 residents.

 

Question: Slides 6 & 7 of the DRB presentation show different

percentages of data lost due to DRB rules, why is that?

Response:  Slide 6 showed the number of workers lost while slide 7

showed the number of origin-destination pairs lost.  The point is that

when thresholds were applied to CTPP Part 3 data as was the case with

the 2000 data, many folks looked at the loss of workers as being

significant but more surprising was actual loss of individual O-D

pairs.  All in all table thresholds devastated the part 3 flow data.  

 

Question: 2005 ACS data doesn't have information on Group Quarters, but

the 2006 and 2007 do.  How is this being handled in the 3-year 2007 ACS

products?

Response:  The Group Quarter data available for 2 years (2006 and 2007)

will be reweighed to account for the missing year.

 

Question: Will the variable - Means of Transportation to Work have walk

and bike modes combined? Also, what about taxi, bus and other?

Response:  Regarding the 3-year CTPP data product there are multiple

category lists for the variable - Means of Transportation to Work.

There are a few tables all 17 modes plus the total are shown separately

but then there are many others where walk and bike have been collapsed

together.  A great deal of the detail on the mode variable is in the

hands of the Census Bureau's disclosure Review Board.  Currently they

have proposed some very tight restrictions on the proposed 3-year CTPP

tables.  Please see http://trbcensus.com/drb/ for more

 

Question: Do you have anything on the TAZ definition timeframe that you

can share with the group?

Response:  Please see our Status Report newsletter for the latest

http://www.TRBcensus.com/newsltr/sr052008.pdf.

 

Question: Can you talk about the difference in income between ACS and

Long Form?

Response:  In Census 2000, the question was asked during April for the

previous year, 1999.  Because April is so close to IRS annual return

data it was felt that "good" income data was being collected because it

was fresh in people's minds.  However, for the ACS the same questions

are asked, but the respondent could be getting the survey during any

month of year (depending on when she/he received the form).  This

reported income is then adjusted to the current year (year of

tabulation) based on CPI.  There are several issues with this with the

largest being that at anytime during the year most people do not how

much money they made in the last 12 months.  Needless to say the income

question is messy.

 

Question: Poverty rates seem discontinuous, higher. Any ideas why?

Response:  Yes, they are discontinuous.  Hopefully they will look better

with the 3-year ACS data products.

 

Question: If the DRB is so strict with its rules then why bother with

new TAZs?

Response:  We hope that the DRB will relax its rules but having TAZs

that correspond to the ACS data release products (65,000 pop TAZs,

20,000 pop TAZs and small TAZs) will help us in the future all sorts of

data products.  Having geography match the data release seems to make

good sense so that we can at least get complete coverage (wall-to-wall)

within a region.

 

Question: What are the implications of rising fuel prices on travel

choices on mode to work?  Has anybody thought about it, especially with

aggregating 3 years worth of data?  Since the ACS asks about "usual"

mode, it could still miss modes used only part of the time.

Response:  The 3 year ACS trend data might look a lot different than the

2000 data. This might be a good research question.

 

Question: Is the category list for the variable - occupation being

consolidated?

Response:  No, DRB has not asked us to collapse the variables - industry

or occupation.

 

Question: Is anybody planning to write to Congress about the DRB issue?

Response: AASHTO SCOP is sending a letter to the Census Bureau to appeal

the DRB decision.  As FHWA staff, we cannot contact Congress directly

but we know that many regional agencies do talk with their Congressional

delegations.  It is somewhat ironic but many of the congressionally

mandated analysis like the FTA New Starts program and environmental

justice analysis all need data at a smaller geography level which will

be difficult to obtain with the DRB's current rules.

Question: We are relatively a new MPO and I have a CTPP 101 question.

As an MPO do we need to provide you any information, and what are our

sources of information regarding CTPP specifically regarding TAZs?

Response: The CTPP listserve is a good place for information regarding

ongoing CTPP related activities. The TAZ definition process is planned

for March/April of 2009 and it is recommended that MPO's allocate some

budget when preparing their work plans for FY 2009, especially for new

MPOs. The CTPP Status Report is also a good source of information.  If

you have any particular questions please do not hesitate to contact

anyone one of us on the CTPP team.

 

Question:  Somewhere it was noted the first CTPP ACS product would be

available in 2009 for areas of 20,000 or more for places and counties. 

Response: Yes that is correct.  We are still in the negotiation stage

regarding some DRB issues but this is our GOAL.  This first CTPP product

would use 3 years of ACS

data.  

 

Question:  There was also a mention of TAZ level data also for 20,000

population threshold.  However, I am not sure if this is included in the

first 3 year product for 2009, or whether the first TAZ level report

will not be available until 2012 with a 5 year product.

Response: To get "small" area geography like a TAZ or a census tract,

the census requires 5 years of ACS data. So, we are planning to wait for

2006 thru 2010 ACS data to incorporate 2010 Census geography and

weights, which we hope would be tabulated by 2012.   This will likely

require some data synthesis before release.  Because of the probability

that the data will be synthetic, we do not anticipate any population

threshold. 

 

--

Ed Christopher

Resource Center Planning Team

Federal Highway Administration

19900 Governors Drive

Olympia Fields, Illinois  60461

708-283-3534 (V)  708-574-8131 (cell)

708-283-3501 (F)

 

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